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We had a big night on Friday, as Willson Contreras and Alec Burleson each went yard for a nice profit, even with Ronald Acuña Jr. losing. Let’s try to stay hot with the Saturday slate.
Today, we’re going with Marcus Semien, Amed Rosario, and Kyle Manzardo. As you can see, we’re digging a little deeper than your usual household names for this one.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 41-159 (+0.73 units)
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Saturday, June 6
Marcus Semien Home Run Odds
Marcus Semien is currently slashing .216/.267/.330 with six home runs in 248 plate appearances. It’s been a disappointing debut season for the 35-year-old second baseman with the Mets. The good news is that he’s hitting the ball harder, increasing his barrel rate from 6.7% to 8.3%.
On top of that, Semien is starting to show signs of life at the plate. Three of his six home runs have come in the last 10 games. During this stretch, he also has three multi-hit games.
While Semien is clearly a hitter on the decline, he’s still capable of hitting 15-20 homers in a season. Tonight looks like a good spot for him to hit No. 7.
He’s going up against Padres’ right-hander Griffin Canning, who has a 4.96 xERA and an 11.5% barrel rate, giving up a lot of hard contact. Canning is struggling with the long ball, as highlighted by a 1.95 HR/9.
What’s also good is that Semien is quite familiar with Canning. In 31 career plate appearances, Semien has two home runs and a .466 expected slugging percentage vs the veteran righty.
With that in mind, we’ll take Semien to homer here. Risk 0.1 units.
Amed Rosario Home Run Odds
Amed Rosario is a lefty-hitting specialist for the Yankees, putting up a .271 ISO against southpaws. We just saw him go 4-for-6 with two home runs against the Royals on May 26th.
He’s been hitting the ball much harder this season, including a 12.3% barrel rate, which is a career-high. His previous was 6.0%, so that’s a major improvement. To that end, look past the fact that Rosario’s career-high in home runs is 15. He’s definitely a different hitter right now.
That’s why I’m taking him to homer, especially with the matchup vs. Red Sox left-hander Ranger Suarez. Rosario has 11 career plate appearances against Suarez, including four hits and two home runs with a 1.141 expected slugging percentage.
I can’t pass up that kind of batter-vs-pitcher data, so we’ll take Rosario to hit his seventh homer of the year here. Risk 0.1 units.
Kyle Manzardo Home Run Odds
After a breakout season last year where Kyle Manzardo hit 27 home runs, he’s been disappointing this year, slashing .234/.313/.455 with seven home runs in 193 plate appearances.
However, he’s actually increased his barrel rate from 11.8% to 13.1%. We’re seeing Manzardo slowly find his groove at the plate, as he’s gone 5-for-12 in his last four games, including two home runs during that stretch.
Up next is a familiar opponent in Rangers’ right-hander Jack Leiter. Manzardo has gone 2-for-6 with one home run, one walk, and an .830 expected slugging percentage against Leiter.
Leiter is a pitcher who gives up a lot of hard contact (11.0% barrel rate), so this is the right spot to go with Manzardo. Risk 0.1 units.
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