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We got shut out on Friday, as Gunnar Henderson, Wilyer Abreu, and Juan Soto each failed to homer. We’ll try to get back in the winning column on Saturday.
Today, we’re going with Shohei Ohtani, Munetaka Murakami, and Jac Caglianone.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 16-87 (-1.73 units)
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Saturday, May 2
Shohei Ohtani Home Run Odds
Shohei Ohtani is currently slashing .261/.392/.470 with six home runs in 144 plate appearances. While it’s a slow start for the best player in the world, he still has an impressive 20.2% barrel rate, so there’s no reason to be concerned.
Ohtani has only one home run since April 12th, but I’m going to take a shot on him in this spot against the Cardinals.
It’s a matchup against right-hander Michael McGreevy, whose 6.17 xERA is much higher than his 2.97 ERA, so the underlying metrics point to negative regression sooner than later. McGreevy is giving up hard contact at an alarming rate, as highlighted by his 12.9% barrel rate.
With that in mind, we’ll take a shot on Ohtani to hit his seventh homer of the season in this spot. Risk 0.1 units.
Munetaka Murakami Home Run Odds
I’m running out of superlatives to describe Munetaka Murakami’s phenomenal start to his big league career. I was a huge believer in him coming into the season, but he’s exceeded my wildest expectations, slashing .239/.383/.584 with 13 home runs in 141 plate appearances.
While strikeouts are an issue (32.8%), Murakami has a fantastic eye at the plate (19.1% walk rate). He has been absolutely crushing the ball, featuring a 23.5% barrel rate.
As a left-handed hitter, Murakami naturally has better numbers vs. righties, including a 170 wRC+ on the season. He’ll get one tonight in Michael King. King is giving up a 9.9% barrel rate, so we could see Murakami leave the yard yet again.
He’s been on fire lately, homering in eight of his last 13 games. Let’s ride with him to see if he can hit No. 14. Risk 0.1 units.
Jac Caglianone Home Run Odds
Jac Caglianone was one of my favorite breakout picks coming into the season, but it’s been a slow start for the Royals’ slugger, as he’s slashing .253/.333/.429 with only three home runs in 102 plate appearances.
However, he’s still hitting the ball hard, putting up a 17.2% barrel rate. He’s a left-handed slugger who is better vs. righties, putting up a 119 wRC+ against them (83 wRC+ vs. lefties).
He’ll get one tonight in Emerson Hancock, who has a 4.50 xERA on the season, which is considerably higher than his 2.86 ERA, so perhaps we’ll start to see some regression.
Hancock is giving up a lot of hard contact, including a 12.0% barrel rate, which bodes well for Caglianone. It’s also encouraging to see Caglianone homer in his last game.
Home runs often come in bunches for sluggers, so perhaps we’re at the start of a power binge here. It’s only a matter of time before Caglianone gets going, as he has elite raw power, and the batted ball metrics are there. We’ll take him to hit No. 4 tonight. Risk 0.1 units.
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