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We got shut out on Friday, as Adley Rutschman, Julio Rodriguez, and Jake Burger each failed to hit home runs. Let’s try to get back in the winning column with the Saturday slate.
Today, we’re going with Kyle Tucker, Hunter Goodman, and Gavin Sheets. Each of these hitters is in the right spot for a home run tonight, given the matchups.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 29-133 (-1.62 units)
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Saturday, May 23
Kyle Tucker Home Run Odds
Kyle Tucker has gotten off to a poor start to his tenure with the Dodgers, slashing .247/.352/.388 with four home runs in 210 plate appearances. The barrel rate is way down from 10.8% to 5.7%. However, we’ve seen some improvement in May, as his wRC+ has increased from 102 to 134.
While Tucker hasn’t homered since May 4th, I like taking a shot on him in this one.
The Brewers are sending out Robert Gasser. Since it’s a lefty-vs-lefty matchup, we’re getting nearly +500 odds on Tucker. You don’t often get that with a veteran who has 30+ home run upside.
In a very small sample vs. Gasser, Tucker has gone 2-for-2 with a home run.
Given the improvements in May and appealing price, we’ll take a shot on Tucker to hit his fifth homer of the year here. Risk 0.1 units.
Hunter Goodman Home Run Odds
Hunter Goodman has a modest .242/.304/.472 slash with 11 home runs in 194 plate appearances. However, he’s still hitting the ball hard, with a 12.7% barrel rate that aligns with career norms.
Goodman hasn’t homered since May 15th, but I like the spot here against Zac Gallen. Not only does Gallen have a 5.16 xERA on the season, but Goodman has performed well against the veteran righty in his career.
In nine plate appearances vs. Gallen, Goodman has one home run and one double with a .763 expected slugging percentage.
We’re getting a +400 price on Goodman at the time of this article, which is appealing considering that he has 30-homer power.
With that in mind, we’ll take Goodman to hit his 12th home run of the year in this spot. Risk 0.1 units.
Gavin Sheets Home Run Odds
Gavin Sheets is slashing .254/.335/.522 with nine home runs in 155 plate appearances. You have to like the plate discipline he’s shown (10.3 BB%, 20.0 K%) while hitting the ball relatively hard (10.3% barrel).
The veteran has been excellent in May, slashing .288/.422/.596 with five home runs in 64 plate appearances. He also has four home runs in his last nine games.
In a very small sample against Athletics’ righty J.T. Ginn, Sheets has gone 2-for-2 with a home run.
As a left-handed hitter with a 161 wRC+ against righties (-4 wRC+ vs lefties), this feels like the right spot to take a shot on Sheets.
We’re also getting a great price on Sheets here, as his prop is priced around +500 odds at the time of this article. Considering these factors, we’ll ride with Sheets to hit his 10th home run of the season in this spot. Risk 0.1 units.
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