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We cooled off from a recent hot streak on Friday, as Eugenio Suarez, Michael Busch, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. each failed to hit home runs. We’ll look to get back on track with the Saturday slate.
Today, we’re going with Oneil Cruz, Yordan Alvarez, and Junior Caminero. These are three sluggers who hit the ball hard, each in good spots today.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 35-147 (-0.5 units)
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Saturday, May 30
Oneil Cruz Home Run Odds
Oneil Cruz is slashing .258/.325/.459 with 12 home runs in 252 plate appearances. While strikeouts remain a major problem (35.3 K%), he continues to hit the ball hard, as highlighted by an impressive 16.4% barrel rate. After homering last night, I’m going to Cruz to make it two in a row here.
What I like about this spot is the matchup against Twins’ right-hander Bailey Ober. This is a pitcher who is putting up a 1.31 HR/9 and 9.4% barrel rate this season. We’ve seen Ober allow two home runs in each of his last two outings.
What’s even better is that Ober has struggled more against lefties like Cruz. Left-handers have put up a 1.91 HR/9 against him, while righties are at 0.62 HR/9.
With that in mind, we’ll take a shot on Cruz to hit No. 13 in this spot. Risk 0.1 units.
Yordan Alvarez Home Run Odds
Yordan Alvarez is having a terrific season, slashing .310/.415/.641 with 20 home runs in 253 plate appearances. This includes an otherworldly 19.2% barrel rate. Simply put, this is one of the best hitters in baseball.
The Astros’ slugger is coming in hot, homering five times in his last five games. That’s great news in this spot against Brewers’ right-hander Brandon Sproat, who has had an issue with the long ball this season. Sproat is putting up a 1.81 HR/9 and 4.80 xERA. Lefties like Alvarez have been better against the 25-year-old righty, putting up a .394 wOBA (.351 wOBA for righties).
Given how well Yordan is swinging the bat right now, I like the spot here, especially since you can get a +300 price on one of the top sluggers in baseball.
We’ll ride with Yordan to hit No. 21 today. Risk 0.1 units.
Junior Caminero Home Run Odds
Junior Caminero is currently slashing .267/.359/.485 with 13 home runs in 237 plate appearances. You have to love the 15.6% strikeout rate for such an elite power hitter. It’s rare that you see a 40-home run threat put the ball in play so often.
While Caminero hasn’t homered since May 18, I like the spot for him against left-hander Reid Detmers. The Rays’ third baseman has been better against lefties (146 wRC+) compared to righties (131 wRC+).
With Detmers coming off such a dominant outing against the Rangers, we’re getting a reasonable price on one of the best power hitters in baseball.
Considering these factors, we’ll ride with Caminero to hit his 14th home run of the season tonight. Risk 0.1 units.
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