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We got shut out on Saturday, as Aaron Judge, Kyle Schwarber, and Riley Greene each failed to hit home runs. Let’s get back on track with a winning day on Sunday.
Today, we’re going with Spencer Torkelson, Jazz Chisholm Jr., and Seiya Suzuki.
Keep reading to find out about our MLB home run predictions for today. Also, be sure to check out our daily MLB betting trends page.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 12-73 (-1.91 units)
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Sunday, April 26
Spencer Torkelson Home Run Odds
Spencer Torkelson is currently slashing .212/.343/.400 with four home runs in 102 plate appearances. This includes rock-solid batted ball metrics, with a 12.5% barrel rate and a 46.4% hard-hit rate.
Here we have a streaky hitter who is finally getting on track. Torkelson has homered in four consecutive games.
I’ll take a chance that he makes it five in a row. Not only is it at one of the most home run-friendly environments in Great American Ball Park, but the matchup is exploitable against Rhett Lowder.
The rookie right-hander has a 15.3% strikeout rate, so hitters put a lot of balls in play against him. He’s also put up a 4.87 SIERA, so Torkelson can easily get to him here.
Even with Torkelson now priced up due to the hot streak, I have to give him a chance here. He’s one of the streakiest hitters in MLB. Risk 0.1 units.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Home Run Odds
Jazz Chisholm Jr. has a .204/.295/.323 slash with two home runs in 105 plate appearances. It’s been a terrible start for him, as even the batted ball metrics are poor, including a 4.8% barrel rate.
However, Jazz homered 31 times in only 531 plate appearances last year, so it’s only a matter of time before he gets going. In fact, the hot streak seems to have already started, as Jazz has two homers in his last three games.
I like the matchup against Spencer Arrighetti, who is struggling against lefties so far, allowing a .385 wOBA against them (.115 wOBA vs. righties).
Then you have to consider that you’re getting a 30-homer hitter at longer than +500 odds, so there’s some nice value here.
With that in mind, we’ll ride with Jazz to hit his third homer in the last four games. Risk 0.1 units.
Seiya Suzuki Home Run Odds
Seiya Suzuki has been terrific since returning from injury, slashing .327/.439/.564 with four home runs in 66 plate appearances. The veteran slugger has been crushing the ball, homering four times in his last five games.
This includes a 227 wRC+ against lefties so far, and he’ll get one today in Justin Wrobleski. While Wrobleski’s results have been great, the underlying metrics point to regression, including a 5.27 SIERA. Perhaps this is the game where it falls apart for him.
We’re also getting favorable weather here, as forecasts call for 12.3 MPH winds blowing out at Dodger Stadium. This could turn a fly ball into a home run.
Considering Suzuki’s red-hot at the plate, Wrobleski is ripe for regression, and windy weather is on tap, we’ll ride with Suzuki to go yard here. Risk 0.1 units.
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