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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 80-344 (-2.19 units)
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Sunday, August 30
Amed Rosario Home Run Odds for Sunday
Amed Rosario is a lefty-masher. While his overall slash line doesn’t jump off the screen, including a .225/.271/.422 with 10 home runs in 203 plate appearances, he’s good against southpaws. He’s putting up a career 115 wRC+ against them (85 wRC+ vs righties).
Up next is an exploitable matchup against Red Sox lefty Ranger Suarez, who has struggled vs Rosario throughout his career. In 14 plate appearances, Rosario has two home runs with a .582 xwOBA vs. Suarez.
Josh Naylor Home Run Odds for Sunday
Josh Naylor is currently slashing .269/.330/ 368 with 10 home runs in 535 plate appearances. After a .462 slugging percentage last year, it’s been a disappointing season for Naylor. However, this is a spot to ride with him. He’s going up against Max Scherzer, who has struggled with the long ball, putting up a 2.16 HR/9.
On top of that, Naylor has three hits and one home run in seven career plate appearances vs. Scherzer. Given that we get a good price on Naylor due to his underwhelming numbers, this is a good spot to take him.
Cedric Mullins Home Run Odds Sunday
We’ll finish it off with Cedric Mullins, who is slashing .205/.286/.356 with 14 home runs in 442 plate appearances. These are abysmal numbers, but we’re willing to take a chance on Mullins here.
I like the matchup against Robbie Ray. The key here is the batter-vs-pitcher data. In 12 plate appearances, Mullins has two home runs and a .756 xSLG vs Ray.
Photo Credit: REUTERS
