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We made a very small profit on Saturday, as Kyle Schwarber went yard, making up for losses on Kyle Stowers and Jose Altuve. Let’s build on this with a strong result on Sunday.
Today, we’re going with James Wood, Rafael Devers, and Travis Bazzana. Each of these hitters has been hot at the plate, set for an exploitable matchup.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 50-193 (+0.86 units)
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Sunday, June 21
James Wood Home Run Odds
James Wood is currently slashing .272/.399/.537 with 20 home runs in 358 plate appearances. This includes an otherworldly 24.1% barrel rate. Wood has absolutely crushed sinkers this year, registering a .511 xwOBA against the pitch. Why does that matter? Because he’s going up against Rays’ right-hander Nick Martinez.
Martinez goes with his sinker 31% of the time, which is the highest usage among all his pitches. His sinker is allowing a .341 xwOBA, so it’s getting hit relatively hard. While Martinez has been quite effective for the Rays, his underlying metrics suggest that negative regression is coming soon, as his 4.50 xERA is much higher than his 2.60 ERA.
With Wood having homered three times in his last nine games, we’ll take a shot on him hitting No. 21 in this favorable matchup. Risk 0.1 units.
Rafael Devers Home Run Odds
Rafael Devers is currently slashing .241/.302/.437 with 11 home runs in 324 plate appearances. His barrel rate has plummeted from 16.0% to 9.5%. However, he’s put up a .287 ISO in May and a .258 ISO in June after a .083 ISO in March/April, so he’s starting to find his groove in terms of power. We’ve seen Devers homer four times since June 6th.
That’s good news against Marlins’ right-hander Ryan Gusto, who has gotten crushed by lefties like Devers, allowing a .384 wOBA against them (.339 wOBA vs righties). We just saw Gusto allow two home runs against the Phillies in his last start. This is a pitcher allowing an abysmal 13.7% barrel rate, so it’s a good spot for Devers.
With that in mind, we’ll ride with the Giants’ slugger to hit his 12th homer of the season here. Risk 0.1 units.
Travis Bazzana Home Run Odds
Travis Bazzana is having a terrific rookie season for the Guardians, slashing .274/.369/.476 with seven home runs in 195 plate appearances. You have to love the plate discipline metrics, as highlighted by a 12.3% walk rate and an 18.5% strikeout rate. We just saw Bazzana homer twice against the Astros last night. He’s now gone yard three times in his last three games.
That’s good news against Astros’ right-hander Kai-Wei Teng, who has been crushed by lefties like Bazzana, allowing a .408 wOBA against them (.255 wOBA vs. righties). This gives Bazzana a chance to keep the good times rolling with another home run in this spot.
What’s even better about taking Bazzana today is that you’re getting longshot odds with a price of around +700. I can’t pass that up, so we’ll take the Guardians’ rookie here. Risk 0.1 units.
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