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We had another profitable night on Saturday, as we hit a longshot prop with Marcus Semien going yard, helping make up for the miss on Kyle Manzardo. The Red Sox vs. Yankees game was postponed, so Amed Rosario was a void.
Today, we’re going with Randy Arozarena, Amed Rosario, and Miguel Vargas. Each of these hitters are in a good spot to hit home runs.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 42-160 (+1.51 units)
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Sunday, June 7
Randy Arozarena Home Run Odds
Randy Arozarena is having a terrific season with the Mariners, slashing .285/.372/.444 with six home runs in 277 plate appearances. He’s trimmed his strikeout rate from 26.9% to 22.4%, which is encouraging, especially for a veteran hitter.
While Arozarena hasn’t homered since May 25th, I like the spot today against Jack Flaherty. This is a pitcher that Arozarena has had success against, going 4-for-10 with two home runs and one double, along with a .704 expected slugging percentage.
Flaherty has had some issues with the long ball, as highlighted by a 1.25 HR/9 and an 8.5% barrel rate.
With that in mind, we’ll take Arozarena to homer here. Risk 0.1 units.
Amed Rosario Home Run Odds
I liked Amed Rosario to hit a home run yesterday, but the game got rained out. With the same pitching matchup, there’s no reason not to add Rosario once again.
This is a hitter who crushes lefties, putting up a .271 ISO against them this year. He recently had a two-homer game against the Royals on May 26th. As a part-time player, Rosario is a valuable platoon bat off the bench for the Yankees.
You have to love how Rosario has increased his career-high in barrel rate from 6.0% to 12.3% this year. Part of that is due to his sheltered at-bats, only playing against lefties, but it speaks to how well he performs against them.
Up next is a matchup against Ranger Suarez, whom Rosario has crushed in his career, homering twice with a 1.141 expected slugging percentage in 11 plate appearances.
That’s the kind of favorable batter-vs-pitcher data that I can’t pass up, so let’s ride with Rosario here. Risk 0.1 units.
Miguel Vargas Home Run Odds
Miguel Vargas is having a breakout season for the White Sox, slashing .243/.373/.496 with 15 home runs in 277 plate appearances. He’s bumped his walk rate up from 9.8% to 15.5% while increasing his barrel rate from 9.3% to 14.4%.
Vargas recently had a two-homer game on June 1st, so we’ll take a shot on him going yard again vs. Aaron Nola.
The veteran right-hander has had major issues with home runs, as highlighted by a 1.61 HR/9 and 9.3% barrel rate. On top of that, Vargas has a home run in three career plate appearances against him.
With how well Vargas has been swinging the bat this season, we have to ride with him here. Clearly, this is a different hitter than in previous years. Let’s go with him to hit No. 16 today. Risk 0.1 units.
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