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We had a nice day on Saturday, as Bobby Witt Jr. and Byron Buxton went yard, giving us some profit, even with Julio Rodriguez failing to hit a home run. We’ll try to keep it rolling with the Sunday slate.
Today, we’re going with Nick Kurtz, Wilyer Abreu, and Elly De La Cruz. I like the spots for each of these hitters.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 23-104 (-1 units)
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Sunday, May 10
Nick Kurtz Home Run Odds
Nick Kurtz has a .264/.418/.436 slash with five home runs in 177 plate appearances. It’s an underwhelming line, but he’s starting to get hot, slashing .324/.395/.441 in May.
Kurtz is currently on a seven-game hitting streak, set for an exploitable matchup against Orioles’ right-hander, Chris Bassitt.
Bassitt has posted a 5.52 xERA this season. The numbers are worse against left-handers like Kurtz (.458 wOBA) compared to righties (.293 wOBA).
It’s also worth noting that we’re getting favorable weather here, with forecasts calling for 80-degree temperatures with 8.3 MPH winds blowing out to right field. Those are hitter-friendly conditions, especially for lefties like Kurtz. This is reflected in the total, which is at 10 runs.
Considering these factors, we’ll take Kurtz to go yard in this spot. Risk 0.1 units.
Wilyer Abreu Home Run Odds
Wilyer Abreu is currently slashing .303/.387/.486 with six home runs in 163 plate appearances. This includes impressive plate discipline metrics (12.3 BB%, 19.0 K%) and a rock-solid barrel rate (11.6%).
On top of that, Abreu has been terrific in May, putting up a .214 ISO and a 152 wRC+.
Up next is a matchup vs. sinker-baller Nick Martinez. While this has been an effective pitch for Martinez, Abreu has crushed sinkers, registering a .368 xwOBA against them.
I know that Martinez has crushed expectations so far, but he’s going to regress sooner than later. Perhaps this will be the spot, especially with 9.8 MPH winds blowing out to center.
Given how well Abreu is swinging the bat, we’ll ride with him here. Risk 0.1 units.
Elly De La Cruz Home Run Odds
Elly De La Cruz has been terrific for the Reds, slashing .277/.345/.516 with 10 home runs in 177 plate appearances. The batted ball metrics look great, as highlighted by a 15.5% barrel rate.
The weather is slightly favorable at Great American Ball Park, with 70-degree temperatures and 5.6 MPH winds blowing out to right field, which is good for a switch-hitter like Elly, who will be batting from the left side here.
Kai-Wei Teng is on the mound for the Astros. This isn’t a matchup to fear, especially since he’s been much worse vs. lefties (.301 wOBA) than righties (.208 wOBA).
De La Cruz has gone 4-for-8 in this series, so it feels like he’s on the brink of hitting a home run. He also has a .636 slugging percentage at home, which bodes well for this prop. This isn’t surprising, since Great American Ball Park is one of the most hitter-friendly environments in MLB.
With that in mind, we’ll ride with Elly here. Risk 0.1 units.
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