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We had a small profit on Saturday, as Munetaka Murakami went yard and Curtis Mead pushed, overcoming the loss of Jordan Walker.
We’ll look to build on this for the Sunday slate, where we’re riding with Samuel Basallo, Seiya Suzuki, and Jac Caglianone.
Remember to be sure to check out our daily MLB betting trends page.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 27-118 (-1.12 units)
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Sunday, May 17
Samuel Basallo Home Run Odds
Samuel Basallo came into the season touted as one of the best hitting prospects in baseball. The 21-year-old catcher got off to a slow start, but his slash is now at a respectable .278/.341/.492 with six home runs in 138 plate appearances. This includes a rock-solid 10.0% barrel rate.
Basallo has been terrific in May so far, slashing .364/.391/.591 with one home run, which came in yesterday’s game. He’s also better against right-handers, putting up a .238 ISO against them (.120 ISO vs. lefties).
That’s good news for today’s matchup, as he’ll be going up against Miles Mikolas. The veteran righty has been abysmal for the Nationals this year, registering a 5.09 xERA and a 2.25 HR/9. The numbers are even worse against lefties (.380 wOBA, 2.45 HR/9) compared to righties (.359 wOBA, 2.04 HR/9).
So, here we have a case of a touted young hitter finding his groove, facing one of the worst pitchers in baseball right now. Sign me up. Risk 0.1 units.
Seiya Suzuki Home Run Odds
Seiya Suzuki is having a rock-solid season for the Cubs, slashing .263/.371/.475 with seven home runs in 140 plate appearances. However, he’s gotten ice-cold at the plate, going 2-for-25 in his last six games. However, this is a great spot for Suzuki to get back on track.
He’s going up against White Sox right-hander Erick Fedde, who has registered a 4.15 xERA and a 10.4% barrel rate this year. The numbers are even worse against righties (.394 wOBA, 3.86 HR/9) compared lefties (.257 wOBA, 0.41 HR/9). That bodes well for a right-handed hitter like Suzuki.
With that in mind, we’ll take a shot on the veteran slugger to hit his eighth homer of the season in this spot. Risk 0.1 units.
Jac Caglianone Home Run Odds
Jac Caglianone was one of my favorite targets in fantasy baseball this season. I had high hopes for the young slugger, as he’s an elite prospect who has high-end raw power. The results haven’t been there so far, as he’s slashing .246/.318/.425 with five home runs in 148 plate appearances. However, I like the spot vs. the Cardinals here.
For one, Caglianone just homered in his last game. Perhaps this could be the start of a power binge. On top of that, as a left-handed hitter, Caglianone is much better vs. righties, putting up a 119 wRC+ (59 wRC+ against lefties).
Then you have to consider the pitcher on the mound in Andre Pallante. He’s putting up a 4.29 xERA and a 1.06 HR/9 with an 8.4% barrel rate. Pallante is worse vs. lefties (1.19 HR/9) than righties (0.92 HR/9). I’m still confident that Caglianone will get it going soon, so we’ll ride with him here. Risk 0.1 units.
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