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We got shut out for the consecutive night on Saturday, as Kyle Tucker, Hunter Goodman, and Gavin Sheets each failed to hit home runs. Let’s try to get back on track for the Sunday slate.
Today, we’re riding with Corbin Carroll, Jake Burger, and Gavin Sheets. Each of these hitters has been generating hard contact lately. Plus, the price looks appealing.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 29-136 (-1.92 units)
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Sunday, May 24
Corbin Carroll Home Run Odds
Corbin Carroll is currently slashing .285/.387/.547 with seven home runs in 207 plate appearances. This is a hitter who has 30+ home run upside. He’s building off last year with another elite barrel rate at 14.3%.
So far in May, Carroll has a respectable .270/.375/.514 slash with three home runs in 20 games. In the last seven days, Carroll has an impressive .499 xwOBA, which means he’s hitting the ball hard. That ranks 13th in MLB during this stretch.
Up next is a matchup against Rockies’ left-hander Jose Quintana, who has a 4.48 xERA and a 1.36 HR/9 this season. Carroll has absolutely crushed lefties this season, as highlighted by an otherworldly 227 wRC+.
Despite that, we’re getting the Diamondbacks’ outfielder at nearly +500 odds, making him an intriguing pick for a home run today. Risk 0.1 units.
Jake Burger Home Run Odds
Jake Burger is slashing .241/.292/.428 with nine home runs in 202 plate appearances. This includes a modest 9.6% barrel rate and an elite 48.9% hard-hit rate.
The veteran first baseman has been excellent in May, slashing .292/.370/.538 with four home runs in 18 games. He’s making a lot of contact, as highlighted by his 19.2% strikeout rate, which is down considerably from April (30.2 K%).
In the last seven days, Burger has a .519 xwOBA, which ranks 9th in MLB. Up next is a matchup against left-hander Reid Detmers. Burger has a .171 ISO vs. lefties this season.
Detmers does a good job limiting hard contact, but considering how well Burger is swinging the bat this month, I like the value at nearly +500 odds. Risk 0.1 units.
Gavin Sheets Home Run Odds
Gavin Sheets is in this article for the second day in a row. After missing on him on Saturday, I’m giving him another shot because of an enticing price at longer than +700 odds at the time of this article.
Sheets has a .254/.333/.514 slash with nine home runs in 159 plate appearances. This includes a 10.1% barrel rate. In the last seven days, Sheets has put up a .554 xwOBA, which ranks 5th in MLB during that stretch.
What also bodes well here is that he’s facing a right-hander in Luis Medina. Sheets has a 160 wRC+ against righties this season, so it’s the right spot for him. It’s also worth noting that Medina has a 4.59 xERA this year, so this isn’t a matchup to fear.
To that end, let’s ride with a veteran righty-masher who is generating hard contact at a high rate lately. Risk 0.1 units.
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