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We got shut out on Saturday, as Shohei Ohtani, Munetaka Murakami, and Jac Caglianone each failed to homer. We’ll try to get back in the winning column on Sunday.
Today, we’re going with Austin Wells, Corbin Carroll, and Carson Benge. Each of these three hitters is in favorable spots due to hitter-friendly weather.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 16-90 (-2.03 units)
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Sunday, May 3
Austin Wells Home Run Odds
Austin Wells came into Saturday’s action with some intriguing numbers for this upcoming matchup against the Orioles. While Wells is only slashing .203/.341/.338, you have to like his plate discipline, including a 17.6% walk rate and a 17.6% strikeout rate.
It also bodes well that Wells mashes righties, which isn’t surprising considering he’s a left-handed hitter. The numbers speak for themselves, including a wRC+ against them.
Austin Wells is in a smash spot at home in a hitter-friendly environment. On top of that, we’re getting favorable weather, with forecasts calling for 14.6 MPH winds blowing out to right field.
In a ballpark that already plays well for left-handed power, this is huge for Wells. It’s also a good sign that he’s homered twice in the last four games. Risk 0.1 units.
Corbin Carroll Home Run Odds
Corbin Carroll is currently slashing .280/.376/.533. The overall slash line is solid, and you have to love the barrel rate at 12.3%, as Carroll is hitting the ball hard.
Like Wells, Carroll is in favorable weather, with the wind blowing out at Wrigley Field at 13.5 MPH, which is reflected in the high total at nearly 12 runs. While Carroll hasn’t gotten going from a power standpoint just yet, homering only four times in 125 plate appearances, he’s got a long enough track record to trust that he’ll get going.
The pitching matchup is great as well, since Merrill Kelly has gotten crushed this season, putting up a 6.41 xFIP and a 3.07 HR/9.
I like the price we’re getting on an established power hitter like Carroll, especially with windy weather at Wrigley. Kelly has been one of the most home run-prone pitchers in baseball, so there’s a good chance the D-Backs rack up homers in this one, with Carroll potentially going yard. Risk 0.1 units.
Carson Benge Home Run Odds
Carson Benge is off to a slow start to his rookie season, slashing .179/.235/.263 with two home runs in 102 plate appearances. However, the good news is that he’s kept the strikeout rate in check at 23.5%.
Despite early-season strong results for Jack Kochanowicz, I like this matchup, as the Angels’ right-hander has struggled with the long ball throughout his career.
We’re getting some favorable weather here, as forecasts call for 7.6 MPH winds blowing out to center field.
Benge has 20+ home run power, so perhaps he can start getting it going, especially since he has one home run in his last four games. Risk 0.1 units.
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