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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 82-359 (-3.08 units)
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Sunday, September 6
Austin Riley Home Run Odds for Sunday
Austin Riley has had a disappointing season, slashing .223/.294/.359 with 15 home runs in 554 plate appearances. His barrel rate has fallen from 15.2% to 11.6%.
However, he’s been a bit better lately. Since August 1st, Riley is slashing .262/.304/.417 with three homers in 112 plate appearances. This includes an impressive 14.7% barrel rate.
Up next is a good matchup against Aaron Nola. The Phillies’ right-hander has a 4.10 xERA and a 1.95 HR/9 in 148 innings this year, so home runs have been a major problem.
Riley has had success vs. Nola in his career, homering six times in 69 plate appearances. This includes a .637 expected slugging percentage.
Munetaka Murakami Home Run Odds for Sunday
Munetaka Murakami came into Saturday with a .211/.351/.476 slash with 29 home runs in 464 plate appearances. He’s been one of the coldest hitters in baseball.
Since August 1st, Murakami is slashing .136/.282/.305 with five home runs in 142 plate appearances. It’s clear that he hasn’t been right since returning from injury.
However, we saw Murakami homer on Saturday night. With sluggers, home runs often come in bunches. He’s in a good spot to go yard again, taking on Bailey Ober.
The Twins’ right-hander has a 4.63 xERA and a 1.43 HR/9 this season, so like Nola, home runs have been an issue.
Christian Yelich Home Run Odds for Sunday
Christian Yelich came into Saturday’s action with a .242/.322/.390 slash with 10 home runs in 436 plate appearances in what’s been a disappointing season.
However, the veteran lefty is starting to heat up. He’s hit safely in four consecutive games, including a home run on September 1st.
I like the spot at Great American Ball Park, which is a home run haven. It’s also a favorable pitching matchup, as Brady Singer has a 5.05 xERA and a 1.65 HR/9 on the season.
Yelich has one home run and a .525 expected slugging percentage in 13 plate appearances vs. Singer.
Photo Credit: REUTERS
