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We missed on Cody Bellinger, Mike Yastrzemski, and Lawrence Butler as our home run picks on Wednesday. We’ll look to get back in the winning column on Thursday’s slate.
Today, we’re going with Jose Ramirez, Christian Walker, and Cal Raleigh. We’re laying more chalk for this slate because not only are there fewer options, but we need a profitable night after what’s been an ice-cold start to the year.
Keep reading to find out about our MLB home run predictions for today. Also, be sure to check out our daily MLB betting trends page.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 5-50 (-2.45 units)
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Thursday, April 16
Jose Ramirez Home Run Odds
Jose Ramirez is currently slashing .205/.301/.384 with three home runs in 83 plate appearances. It’s been a slow start to the season, but he’s slowly starting to heat up. The veteran third baseman has gone 7-for-23 (.304) with two home runs in his last five games.
As one of the most consistent hitters in baseball with four 30+ home run seasons under his belt, it’s only a matter of time before Ramirez starts to get rolling at the plate.
I’ll take a shot that he can go yard in a favorable matchup against Orioles’ right-hander Shane Baz, who is giving up a lot of hard contact this season, including a 9.8% barrel rate, which ranks in the 37th percentile.
Baz struggled with the long ball last year (1.41 HR/9), so we’ll take a shot on Ramirez taking him deep. Risk 0.1 units.
Christian Walker Home Run Odds
Christian Walker looks like he’s in the middle of a resurgence after a down year in his debut season with the Astros in 2025. The veteran first baseman is currently slashing .303/.382/.576 with four home runs in 76 plate appearances.
This is supported by excellent batted ball metrics, including an impressive 14.3% barrel rate. Walker has four home runs in his last 11 games, so he’s been rolling at the plate.
The Rockies are using an opener in Juan Mejia (.321 xBA allowed), followed by Chase Dollander (16.3% barrel rate), so it’s a good spot for Walker to hit his fifth home run of the season.
It’s always a good idea to try to target Rockies’ pitching. Risk 0.1 units.
Cal Raleigh Home Run Odds
Cal Raleigh is off to a slow start following his historic 2025 season, slashing .151/.241/.274 with two home runs in 83 plate appearances. However, both of those homers came in his last nine games, so perhaps he’s slowly starting to get on track.
Even though a repeat of 60 home runs is extremely unlikely for Raleigh, you’re still likely going to see 35+, which means that it’s only a matter of time before we see a power binge.
Up next is a good spot against Padres’ right-hander Walker Buehler. We’ve seen Raleigh have success against the former Dodger throughout his career, including one home run and two doubles in six plate appearances. Within this small sample, Raleigh has an impressive .719 expected slugging percentage.
With that in mind, we’ll take a shot on Raleigh to hit No. 3 tonight. Risk 0.1 units.
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