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We got shut out on Wednesday for the second night in a row, as Munetaka Murakami, Cal Raleigh, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. failed to go yard. Let’s try to bounce back for the Thursday slate.
Today, we’re riding with Riley Greene, Konnor Griffin, and Daulton Varsho. Each of these hitters is in a good spot with a nice price, especially Griffin.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 15-82 (-1.72 units)
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Thursday, April 30
Riley Greene Home Run Odds
Riley Greene came into Wednesday’s action with a .292/.395/.435 slash with three home runs in 124 plate appearances. You have to like the plate discipline (14.5% walk rate, 24.2% strikeout rate) and the batted ball metrics (14.5% barrel rate).
As a left-handed hitter, Greene is much better vs. right-handers, putting up a 130 wRC+ against them throughout his career (97 wRC+ vs. lefties).
Up next is an exploitable matchup against Bryce Elder. Yes, he’s off to a great start, but he’s got a long track record of getting hit hard, including a 4.72 xERA and a 1.38 HR/9 last year. I’m not buying into his numbers just yet.
It’s also worth noting that we’re getting favorable weather in Atlanta, with forecasts calling for 8.6 MPH winds blowing out to center.
With that in mind, we’ll ride with Greene to hit his fourth homer here. Risk 0.1 units.
Konnor Griffin Home Run Odds
We’re going with a longshot here in MLB’s top prospect, Konnor Griffin. The 20-year-old is currently slashing .226/.283/.345 with two home runs in 92 plate appearances, so it’s definitely been a slow start for him.
However, Griffin is starting to find his groove at the plate, homering twice in his last seven games.
Up next is an exploitable matchup vs. Hunter Dobbins, who is allowing a 4.89 xFIP in 22.2 innings at Triple-A.
At the time of this article, we’re getting longer than +900 odds on this prop. I know Griffin has struggled, but there’s 20+ homer power in that bat.
With both of his homers coming in the last week, it looks like the right time to take a shot on Griffin. Risk 0.1 units.
Daulton Varsho Home Run Odds
Daulton Varsho has a .239/.307/.391 with three home runs in 101 plate appearances. While that’s pretty underwhelming, it’s impressive to see the 18.8% strikeout rate, which is a major decrease from 28.4% last year.
I like the matchup at Target Field against Bailey Ober, who is allowing a 1.20 HR/9 against lefties. Last season, it was even worse, including a 2.00 HR/9.
I know Ober has gotten off to a good start, I need to see more before deciding that he’s back on track. Even at his best, Ober always allowed some hard contact.
Varsho is better against righties, putting up a .226 ISO throughout his career (.117 ISO vs. lefties). Target Field plays favorably for left-handed power, so it feels like the right spot to take a shot on Varsho.
At longer than +400 odds, the price looks appealing on Varsho here. Risk 0.1 units.
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