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We missed on Austin Riley, Zac Veen and Kazuma Okamoto in Wednesday’s action. Let’s try to get back on track on the Thursday slate.
Today, we’re going with Alec Burleson, Matt McLain, and Miguel Vargas. I like the matchup and price for each of these hitters.
Remember to be sure to check out our daily MLB betting trends page.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 76-322 (-1.80 units)
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Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Thursday, August 20
Alec Burleson Home Run Odds
Alec Burleson came into Wednesday’s action with a .289/.354/.493 slash with 21 home runs in 534 plate appearances. This includes an extremely impressive 16.7% strikeout rate with an 11.6% barrel rate. Being able to generate hard contact while putting a lot of balls in play is a rare skill.
Burleson has been excellent in August, slashing .333/.417/.714 with six home runs, so it’s an ideal spot to take him. Playing in a bandbox like Great American Ball Park, which is one of the most homer-friendly environments in MLB, also helps.
On top of that, I love the matchup vs. Brady Singer, who has a 5.03 xERA and a 1.72 HR/9 this season. Burleson has crushed Singer throughout his career, homering twice in 10 plate appearances. We’ll ride with him to hit No. 22 here. Risk 0.1 units.
Matt McLain Home Run Odds
Matt McLain is having another disappointing season, coming into Wednesday’s action with a .192/.291/.341 slash with 11 home runs in 102 games. However, he’s been a bit better in August, homering three times in 17 games.
We’re focusing on another hitter at Great American Ball Park here in what is a projected high-scoring game, as highlighted by the 9.5-run total. On top of that, you have to like the matchup against Michael McGreevy, who is allowing a 10.2% barrel rate, which ranks in the 12th percentile.
McLain has performed well against McGreevy throughout his career, homering once in six plate appearances. While it’s a small sample, it’s the right matchup and game environment to take a shot here. Risk 0.1 units.
Miguel Vargas Home Run Odds
Miguel Vargas has had a breakout season for the White Sox, coming into Wednesday’s action with a 46.3% hard-hit rate (79th percentile), 14.4% barrel rate (92nd percentile), and 74.1 MPH bat speed (70th percentile).
He already has a career-high 28 home runs this season, four of which have come in the last eight games. That bodes well for his upcoming matchup against Braves’ right-hander Grant Holmes, who has a 9.0% barrel rate, which ranks in the 26th percentile.
Vargas has performed well vs. Holmes in a small sample, homering once in two career plate appearances. With that in mind, we’ll ride with him here, especially since he’s been so hot at the plate. Risk 0.1 units.
Photo Credit: REUTERS
