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We got shut out on Wednesday, as Jose Altuve, Randal Grichuk, and Corey Seager. We’ll try to get back on track with the Thursday slate.
Today, we’re going with Shohei Ohtani, Kyle Tucker, and Randy Arozarena. Each of these hitters is in a favorable matchup to go yard.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 43-171 (+0.89 units)
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Thursday, June 11
Shohei Ohtani Home Run Odds
Shohei Ohtani is having a down year by his standards, slashing .299/.413/.527 with 12 home runs in 294 plate appearances. His barrel rate is down significantly, dropping from 23.4% to 15.7%.
However, we all know about his 50+ home run upside, so it’s only a matter of time before he goes on a power binge. In fact, it may already be in the early stages. In Ohtani’s last four games, he has two home runs, including one in his last game.
Up next is an exploitable matchup against Mitch Keller, who has a 4.54 xERA on the season. Keller has been getting rocked in his last two starts, allowing 13 earned runs during that stretch.
Additionally, Ohtani has had success vs. Keller, homering twice in 12 plate appearances. This includes a .932 expected slugging percentage.
With that in mind, we’ll take a shot on Ohtani to hit No. 13 in this spot. Risk 0.1 units.
Kyle Tucker Home Run Odds
We’re targeting Keller with another Dodgers’ hitter up next. It’s one of the most disappointing hitters in baseball, Kyle Tucker. Tucker is slashing .237/.335/.386 with five home runs in 275 plate appearances. His barrel rate has plummeted from 10.8% to 5.4%, which is a bit concerning.
However, Tucker has a long enough track record with 30+ home run upside to trust that he’ll be able to get going sooner than later. We’ve seen Tucker put up two multi-hit games in his last six, including a homer on June 3rd.
I like the spot vs. Keller because just like Ohtani, Tucker has good numbers in a small sample against the Pirates’ right-hander. Tucker has gone 2-for-3 with one home run and a 1.962 expected slugging percentage. I know that it’s a small sample, but it’s still worth noting.
This is a projected high-scoring game with a 9.5-run total. Considering these factors, we’ll take a shot on Tucker hitting No. 6. Risk 0.1 units.
Randy Arozarena Home Run Odds
Randy Arozarena went yard for us earlier this week, so we’ll take a chance on him doing so again. The veteran outfielder is slashing .294/.380/.455 with seven home runs in 295 plate appearances.
The main appeal with this play is the matchup against Kyle Bradish, who has a 4.10 xERA on the season. Bradish has been worse against righties like Arozarena (.376 wOBA) compared to lefties (.326 wOBA).
In 19 career plate appearances, Arozarena has two home runs. That’s the kind of familiarity I like to see when targeting a home run prop.
Add in the fact that we’re getting a favorable price, and you can see why we’re riding with Arozarena in this spot. Risk 0.1 units.
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