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We had a profitable day on Wednesday, as Kyle Stowers went yard, making up for misses on Francisco Alvarez and Jac Caglianone.
Today, we’re riding with Ceddanne Rafaela, Juan Soto, and Ben Rice. Each of these hitters is in a terrific spot.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 48-186 (+1.09 units)
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Thursday, June 18
Ceddanne Rafaela Home Run Odds
Ceddanne Rafaela is slashing .288/.342/.453 with seven home runs in 263 plate appearances. The dynamic center fielder has been excellent in June, slashing .340/.353/.540 with two home runs in 51 plate appearances. Those homers came on June 10th and June 12th, so Rafaela is coming in hot in this matchup.
It’s a good spot against Blue Jays’ right-hander Trey Yesavage, who hasn’t looked like himself recently. In his last two starts, Yesavage has given up a combined 11 earned runs in 10.2 innings, putting up only eight strikeouts with eight walks. During this stretch, Yesavage has allowed three home runs.
We’re getting favorable weather conditions at Fenway Park, which is already a hitter-friendly environment. Forecasts call for the wind blowing out, which could turn a fly ball into a home run. With that in mind, we’ll take Rafaela to hit No. 8 in this spot. You have to like the price at longer than +600 odds. Risk 0.1 units.
Juan Soto Home Run Odds
Juan Soto is currently slashing .289/.389/.549 with 15 home runs in 240 plate appearances. The Mets’ superstar has trimmed his strikeout rate from 19.2% to 13.8%, which is encouraging, since he’s making more contact. Soto has four multi-hit games in his last six, so he’s coming into this game in top form.
It’s a great matchup against Phillies’ right-hander Aaron Nola, who has a 4.40 xERA and a 1.66 HR/9 this season. Lefties like Soto have crushed Nola to the tune of a .384 wOBA (.331 wOBA against righties). Soto knows Nola quite well, homering three times with a .630 expected slugging percentage in 59 career plate appearances.
Additionally, we’re getting good hitting weather, with forecasts projecting winds blowing out at Citizens Bank Park. This game has a 9.5-run total, so we’ll ride with Soto in this spot. Risk 0.1 units.
Ben Rice Home Run Odds
Ben Rice has delivered on the hype so far this year, slashing .292/.389/.617 with 20 home runs in 285 plate appearances. He’s been absolutely crushing the ball, as highlighted by a 14.5% barrel rate. Rice entered Wednesday’s action with homers in back-to-back games.
Up next is a matchup against White Sox right-hander Sean Burke, who is giving up a .331 wOBA against lefties like Rice (.297 wOBA vs. righties). That’s bad news for the short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium.
We also have to acknowledge that we’re getting windy weather in the Bronx for this game, which is why the total is at 9.5 runs. It’s exactly the type of environment you’re looking for when targeting a home run prop. Let’s take Rice to hit No. 21 here. Risk 0.1 units.
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