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We were shut out on Wednesday, as Xander Bogaerts, Andy Pages, and Brent Rooker each failed to hit home runs. Let’s try to get back on track with the Thursday slate.
Today, we’re going with Shea Langeliers, Ronald Acuna Jr., and George Springer.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 28-128 (-1.62 units)
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Thursday, May 21
Shea Langeliers Home Run Odds
Shea Langeliers is currently slashing .322/.394/.578 with 12 home runs in 203 plate appearances. He’s got an impressive 9.4% walk rate and 20.2% strikeout rate to go along with a 15.0% barrel rate.
The Athletics’ star catcher has continued to mash in May, as highlighted by a .309/.418/.545 slash with four home runs in 66 plate appearances. While he hasn’t homered since May 12th, I like the spot for him tonight.
He’s going up against Angels’ righty Jose Soriano, who has slowed down after a dominant start to the season, allowing a combined 15 earned runs in his last four starts, spanning 22 innings.
Langeliers has done well against Soriano throughout his career, going 6-for-11 with two home runs, one double, one walk, and a .975 expected slugging percentage.
With how good Langeliers has been at the plate this season, it makes sense to ride with him in this spot. Risk 0.1 units.
Ronald Acuna Jr. Home Run Odds
Ronald Acuna Jr. is slashing .252/.364/.378 with two home runs in 162 plate appearances. While the power hasn’t come around yet, he’s still keeping his strikeout rate in check (20.4%) while hitting the ball hard (12.5% barrel).
Since returning from injury on May 19th, Acuna has gone 2-for-10 with a double. It’s only a matter of time before he starts hitting home runs, as this is a hitter with 40+ homer upside.
I’ll take a shot on the Braves’ star outfielder in this matchup against Sandy Alcantara, who is a pitcher that Acuna has had success against throughout his career.
In 48 career plate appearances, Acuna has two home runs, four doubles, and a .624 expected slugging percentage vs. Alcantara. This familiar opponent could be exactly what Acuna needs to start mashing at the plate.
With that in mind, we’ll ride with Acuna to hit his third homer of the season here. Risk 0.1 units.
George Springer Home Run Odds
George Springer is slashing .198/.273/.319 with three home runs in 129 plate appearances. After a slow start to the year and some missed time due to injury, the numbers don’t look good right now.
However, Springer is still keeping his strikeouts down (19.4%), plus he’s slowly getting on track at the plate. He’s hit safely in each of these games in this Yankees series, including a home run on May 18th.
I like the spot vs. Carlos Rodon. Not only does Springer mash lefties (144 wRC+), but he’s also had success vs. Rodon in his career, homering twice with a .364 xwOBA in 33 plate appearances.
Rodon hasn’t found a rhythm yet since returning from injury, failing to go five innings in each of his first two starts since returning. We saw him allow three runs (two earned) in 3.2 innings vs. the Mets in his last outing.
With that in mind, let’s go with Springer to hit a home run here. Risk 0.1 units.
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