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We got shut out on Wednesday, as Shohei Ohtani, Munetaka Murakami, and Matt Olson each failed to hit home runs.
Today, we’re riding with Aaron Judge, Bobby Witt Jr., and Ketel Marte. Let’s try to get back in the winning column here.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 20-98 (-1.5 units)
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Thursday, May 7
Aaron Judge Home Run Odds
Aaron Judge has been absolutely on fire of late, homering three times in his last four games. This puts his season-long slash at .273/.407/.659 with 15 home runs in 163 plate appearances. He’s been even better vs. lefties, as highlighted by his 202 wRC+ (183 wRC+ against righties).
That’s good news for this prop because Judge will get one today in MacKenzie Gore, who is struggling lately. The Rangers’ lefty has allowed 11 runs in 13.2 innings in his last two starts.
So, here we have a red-hot slugger, one of the best hitters of this generation, taking on a pitcher who is coming into this game in poor form. We’re also getting Judge past +200 odds at the time of this article, which is a better price than usual.
Considering these factors, we’ll take Judge to go yard in this spot. Risk 0.1 units.
Bobby Witt Jr. Home Run Odds
Bobby Witt Jr. has gotten off to a slow start this season, slashing .279/.349/.422 with three home runs in 166 plate appearances. The lack of power has been notable, as this is a hitter who has two 30+ homer seasons under his belt. However, Witt still has an 11.9% barrel rate, so there’s not too much to worry about there.
Additionally, the Royals’ superstar is coming into this game in top form, having homered four times in his last 10 games. Perhaps he’s starting to get into a power binge, which is great news for this favorable spot.
The Royals are going up against the Guardians, who are sending out Slade Cecconi. The Guardians’ right-hander has a 5.63 xERA with an 11.7% barrel rate this season. That’s bad news given the conditions at Kauffman Stadium, with the latest weather report projecting 15.7 MPH winds blowing out to center.
With Witt’s recent power surge, I’ll take my chances that he goes yard once again here. Risk 0.1 units.
Ketel Marte Home Run Odds
Ketel Marte is another veteran hitter off to a slow start, slashing .215/.269/.363 with five home runs in 145 plate appearances. However, this is a player with a long track record, homering 25+ times in his previous three seasons.
I like the matchup here vs. Mitch Keller. While Keller has limited home runs this year (0.22 HR/9), he’s struggled to do so throughout his career, allowing a 1.00+ HR/9 in each of his last three seasons.
I’m betting that the D-Backs can hit Keller hard in this one, especially since they’re at home. Marte has performed well vs. Keller throughout his career, homering once with a .506 expected slugging percentage in 11 plate appearances.
At the time of this article, we got Marte at longer than +400 odds, making him worth a look here. Risk 0.1 units.
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