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We had a big day on Monday, going two of three in home run props, including a +700 banger with Jac Caglianone.
Today, we’re going back to the well with Caglianone, along with Kyle Manzardo and Alex Bregman. Let’s build off this strong result.
Keep reading to find out about our MLB home run predictions for today. Also, be sure to check out our daily MLB betting trends page.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 10-60 (-1.36 units)
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Tuesday, April 21
Jac Caglianone Home Run Odds
Jac Caglianone is now on a six-game hitting streak, homering for the first time last night. It was only a matter of time before he got going, as this is a hitter with elite raw power, putting up a 17.8% barrel rate (93rd percentile) with a 55.6% hard-hit rate (92nd percentile) and 76.0 MPH bat speed (93rd percentile).
Up next is a matchup against another right-hander in Shane Baz, who has given up an 8.8% barrel rate (42nd percentile). Baz has gotten crushed by lefties, as they’re hitting .438 wOBA off him (.280 wOBA vs righties).
Then, we have to consider the weather. We’re getting 17 MPH winds blowing out at Kauffman Stadium. Last night, these teams played 12 innings, so the bullpens are taxed, which also bodes well for this prop, since Caglianone may face one of the O’s lower-tier relievers at some point in this game.
With that in mind, we’ll take Caglianone to go yard for the second game in a row. Risk 0.1 units.
Kyle Manzardo Home Run Odds
Kyle Manzardo has been a major disappointment so far this season, slashing .182/.260/.242 with one home run in 73 plate appearances. But we have to remember that he homered 27 times in only 531 plate appearances in his age-24 season last year.
We’re slowly starting to see Manzardo get on track, as he’s now hit safely in eight of his last nine games. Perhaps he can hit his second homer of the season against Astros’ right-hander Ryan Weiss, who is allowing a 2.45 HR/9 and an 11.4% barrel rate this season.
Additionally, we’re getting favorable weather at Progressive Field, with 11 MPH winds blowing out to center.
I like the price at longer than +500 odds on Manzardo here, so we’ll take a chance on him. Risk 0.1 units.
Alex Bregman Home Run Odds
Alex Bregman is currently slashing .244/.317/.344 with two home runs in 101 plate appearances, so it’s been a slow start for the veteran. He’s put up a 135 wRC+ against lefties throughout his career, and he’ll get one tonight in Jesus Luzardo.
Luzardo is one of the best pitchers in the National League. He’s off to a slow start, allowing eight runs to these Cubs in his last outing. So not only did the Cubs rock him last turn, but they’re facing him for his second outing in a row, so there’s familiarity here.
We’ve also seen Bregman have success against Luzardo, homering twice with a .734 expected slugging percentage in 15 plate appearances.
On top of that, 10 MPH winds are blowing out at Wrigley. Let’s ride with Bregman in this spot. Risk 0.1 units.
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