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We hit on Ben Rice and Munetaka Murakami, but missed on Matt Wallner on Monday. It was one of our best nights of the season, so let’s try to build on that for the Tuesday slate.
Today, we’re going with Yordan Alvarez, Sal Stewart, and Cal Raleigh. We’re laying chalk with some of the best power hitters in baseball right now. Remember to be sure to check out our daily MLB betting trends page.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 15-76 (-1.12 units)
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Tuesday, April 28
Yordan Alvarez Home Run Odds
Yordan Alvarez has been outstanding for the Astros so far this season, slashing .358/.465/.755 with 11 home runs in 129 plate appearances. This includes video game numbers with plate discipline (14.7 BB%, 8.5 K%) and batted ball metrics (18.8 Barrel%).
Alvarez comes into Tuesday’s action having homered six times in his last 11 games, so he’s been going yard quite often lately.
You have to like the matchup against Orioles’ right-hander Shane Baz, who has gotten crushed by left-handers this year, allowing a .432 wOBA against them.
It’s a hitter-friendly environment at Camden Yards, especially with forecasts calling for 6 MPH winds blowing out to left field.
With that in mind, we’ll ride with the best hitter in baseball right now. Risk 0.1 units.
Sal Stewart Home Run Odds
Sal Stewart is exceeding even the wildest expectations for his rookie season, slashing .291/.385/.602 with nine home runs in 122 plate appearances. You have to love the 13.9% walk rate and 18.0% strikeout rate so far, as well as the 21.7% barrel rate. Simply put, this kid looks like a seasoned veteran, not a rookie.
This game is at Great American Ball Park, which is one of the most home run-friendly environments in baseball. On top of that, it’s against a lefty in Kyle Freeland, who has low velocity (92 MPH) and ranks in the 41st percentile in hard-hit rate.
Stewart has absolutely crushed lefties so far this year, slashing .368/.556/.789 against them.
We also should note that the wind is blowing out at 6.3 MPH to left-center, so it’s favorable weather conditions.
Considering these circumstances, we’ll roll with Stewart here. Risk 0.1 units.
Cal Raleigh Home Run Odds
Cal Raleigh is off to a slow start, slashing .204/.289/.398 with six home runs in 128 plate appearances, but he’s starting to find his groove. The one they call “Big Dumper” has now homered in five of his last seven games, including back-to-back games.
This is a 60-homer hitter where his long balls come in bunches. Right now, he’s in the middle of a power binge, so we have to hop on board.
Up next is a good matchup against Joe Ryan. Yes, he’s a good pitcher, but he also gives up a lot of hard contact, as highlighted by an 11.2% barrel rate, which ranks in the 24th percentile.
Given how hot Raleigh has been at the plate, it makes sense to take a shot on him keeping it rolling here. This is especially the case because with Ryan on the mound, we get a better price than usual on Raleigh. Risk 0.1 units.
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