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We got shut out on Tuesday, as Bo Bichette and Jackson Chourio failed to hit home runs, while Matt Chapman was voided because the Giants/Braves game was suspended due to weather. Let’s try to bounce back on Wednesday.
Today, we’re riding with Francisco Alvarez, Jac Caglianone, and Kyle Stowers. I like the spots for each of these hitters.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 47-184 (+0.95 units)
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Wednesday, June 17
Francisco Alvarez Home Run Odds
Francisco Alvarez is slashing .238/.306/.392 with five home runs in 146 plate appearances. It’s been yet another injury-plagued year, where the talented catcher hasn’t been able to get it going. However, Alvarez homered as recently as June 10th, and we all know that there’s some power in this bat. Remember, Alvarez hit 25 homers back in 2023. It’s also worth noting that he has an impressive 17.2% barrel rate.
I love the matchup at the bandbox that is Great American Ball Park, which is a home run haven. Nick Lodolo is on the mound, and he’s been struggling to the tune of a 6.14 xERA. Alvarez mashed lefties like Lodolo last year, putting up a 164 wRC+. This isn’t surprising, since Alvarez is a right-handed hitter.
Given these favorable conditions, we’ll take a shot on Alvarez to hit No. 6. Risk 0.1 units.
Jac Caglianone Home Run Odds
Jac Caglianone is currently slashing .274/.347/.444 with eight home runs in 248 plate appearances. He’s been blistering hot in June, slashing .422/.509/.689 with three home runs in 53 plate appearances. You have to love how hard Caglianone as hit the ball, as highlighted by a 14.8% barrel rate.
Up next is a great matchup against Nationals’ right-hander Zack Littell, who has put up a 6.37 xERA and a 2.18 HR/9. Lefties like Caglianone have caused major issues for Littell, as they’re putting up a .396 wOBA and a 3.28 HR/9 against him.
Considering how hot Caglianone has been at the plate, this is the right spot to ride with him as he tries to hit his 9th homer of the season. Risk 0.1 units.
Kyle Stowers Home Run Odds
Kyle Stowers broke out in a big way for the Marlins last season, hitting 25 home runs in only 457 plate appearances. So far this year, it’s been an injury-plagued season, which has limited Stowers to a .211/.297/.362 slash with five home runs in 210 plate appearances. Despite the underwhelming line, I trust that Stowers will eventually get going, as he put up an impressive 19.0% barrel rate last year.
Stowers homered as recently as June 10th. I like his chances on the road against Phillies’ right-hander Andrew Painter, who has a 4.86 xERA and a 1.71 HR/9 on the season. Lefties like Stowers have crushed Painter, putting up a 1.62 HR/9 against him.
Add in the fact that this game is in a hitter-friendly environment like Citizens Bank Park, and you have to like Stowers’ chances of hitting his sixth homer of the season. Risk 0.1 units.
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