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We got shut out for the second night in a row on Monday, losing on Colton Cowser, Jazz Chisholm Jr., and Kyle Schwarber. Let’s try to snap out of this mini-slump on the Tuesday slate.
Today, we’re going with Randy Arozarena, Marcell Ozuna, and Wyatt Langford. Each of these hitters is in a good spot to hit a home run, including a favorable price for this exploitable matchup.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 42-166 (+0.91 units)
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Tuesday, June 9
Randy Arozarena Home Run Odds
Randy Arozarena is currently slashing .293/.381/.447 with six home runs in 286 plate appearances. The veteran outfielder has trimmed his strikeout rate from 26.9% to 22.0% in what’s been a terrific season so far.
Arozarena has two multi-hit games in his last four, but he hasn’t homered since May 25th. I think there’s a reasonable chance that he can change that given tonight’s matchup.
This is a spot against Orioles’ lefty Trevor Rogers, who has struggled with the long ball this season, as highlighted by a 1.33 HR/9. Arozarena has good numbers vs. Rogers, with two home runs and a .798 expected slugging percentage in nine plate appearances.
Add in the fact that we’re getting favorable weather (80 degrees, 7.9 MPH winds blowing out) in a hitter-friendly environment (Camden Yards), and you can see why this is an appealing spot for Arozarena. Risk 0.1 units.
Marcell Ozuna Home Run Odds
Marcell Ozuna has been a major disappointment for the Pirates this season, slashing .193/.277/.304 with five home runs in 202 plate appearances. His barrel rate has fallen from 11.4% to 8.1%, while his strikeout rate has ballooned from 24.3% to 28.7%.
However, I like the matchup against Dodgers’ left-hander Eric Lauer. Ozuna has a 108 wRC+ vs. lefties this season (42 wRC+ vs. righties). Lauer has major issues with the long ball, including a 2.49 HR/9.
Additionally, we’ve seen Ozuna crush Lauer throughout his career, homering three times with a 1.170 expected slugging percentage in 12 plate appearances.
With that in mind, this looks like the ideal spot for Ozuna to send one to the seats. Risk 0.1 units.
Wyatt Langford Home Run Odds
Wyatt Langford is having a disappointing season, slashing .233/.274/.389 with two home runs in 95 plate appearances. While he’s cut his strikeout rate from 26.4% to 23.2%, his barrel rate has plummeted from 14.0% to 7.4%.
However, there are reasons to be encouraged for Langford. For one, since returning from injury, he already has one home run in three games. On top of that, I like the matchup vs. Stephen Kolek.
We just saw the Rangers rock Kolek for six runs on May 29th. Langford didn’t play that game, but he has an .858 expected slugging percentage in four plate appearances against Kolek.
We’ve seen Kolek have some issues with the long ball (1.18 HR/9), which is bad news at Kauffman Stadium, where we’re getting 89-degree temperatures with 14.6 MPH winds blowing out to left field.
That sets up perfectly for Langford to hit another homer, so we’ll take a shot on this spot. Risk 0.1 units.
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