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We swept the board on Monday for the first time this season, as Aaron Judge, Seiya Suzuki, and Jac Caglianone each went yard. We’ll try to build off this winning night for Tuesday’s slate.
Today, we’re riding with James Wood, Bryce Harper, and Jac Caglianone. Each of these three hitters is in favorable spots due to hitter-friendly weather.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 19-93 (-1.37 units)
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Tuesday, May 5
James Wood Home Run Odds
James Wood is currently slashing .231/.383/.507 with 10 home runs in 167 plate appearances. The 23-year-old slugger has been crushing the ball, as highlighted by a video game-like 26.3% barrel rate.
Up next is a matchup against Twins’ righty Taj Bradley, who is in the middle of a breakout season, putting up a 2.85 ERA (3.99 xERA). However, Bradley still has some issues with the long ball (1.10 HR/9), especially vs. lefties (1.23 HR/9).
To make matters worse for Bradley, we’ve got hitter-friendly weather in this one. Forecasts are calling for 80-degree temperatures with 14 MPH winds blowing out to center field.
These are the ideal conditions for Wood to snap his nine-game drought without a home run. Risk 0.1 units.
Bryce Harper Home Run Odds
Bryce Harper has been rock-solid this year, slashing .271/.362/.519 with seven home runs in 149 plate appearances. This includes an impressive 12.8% walk rate and a 16.8% strikeout rate. The batted ball metrics also look good, with a 13.3% barrel rate.
On top of that, Harper is starting to heat up the plate, homering in his last game, where he also had three hits in four plate appearances.
Up next is a matchup vs. Luis Severino. This is a terrible spot for Severino, as we’ve also got hitter-friendly weather in Philadelphia, with forecasts calling for 78-degree temperatures with 15.6 MPH winds blowing out to center.
Severino gives up a lot of hard contact (9.3% barrel rate), so there’s a chance that he could get rocked in this game, especially in a hitter’s park like in Philadelphia.
When you consider all the factors in Harper’s favor, it makes sense to take him to hit his 8th homer of the year here. Risk 0.1 units.
Jac Caglianone Home Run Odds
We’re going back to the well with Jac Caglianone after he homered for us on Monday. The 23-year-old slugger has some of the most raw power in baseball, and we’re finally starting to see the results we’ve been waiting for.
All four of Caglianone’s home runs have come in the last 12 games, with two coming in the last four. The batted ball metrics point to a hitter who just needs a tweak in launch angle to put the ball in the air more instead of on the ground. This is highlighted with his 15.2% barrel rate.
Even though Gavin Williams is a tough matchup, he’s still had a tough time with the long ball this season, including a 1.25 HR/9. As mentioned above, Caglianone can crush the ball in any conditions, even when the wind is blowing in at Kauffman Stadium.
This gives us a better price on Caglianone, so we’ll take a shot on him going yard for the second consecutive game. Risk 0.1 units.
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