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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 81-348 (-2.28 units)
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Tuesday, September 1
Juan Soto Home Run Odds for Tuesday
Juan Soto has had an injury-plagued season, coming into Monday’s action with a .283/.407/.543 slash and 22 home runs in 367 plate appearances. The good news is that the numbers are still strong, as are the batted ball metrics, featuring a 14.2% barrel rate.
Since returning to action on August 29th, Soto already has one home run. I like the spot for him to go yard once again, this time vs Rays’ right-hander Freddy Peralta.
It’s Peralta’s first start vs his old team. He’s struggled with the long ball this season, giving up a 1.40 HR/9.
JJ Bleday Home Run Odds for Tuesday
JJ Bleday has been surprisingly productive for the Reds, slashing .218/.330/.429 with 21 home runs and a 108 wRC+ in 455 plate appearances. He has increased his barrel rate from 7.8% to 9.3%.
Bleday has been much better in the bandbox that is Great American Ball Park, putting up a .285 ISO and a .529 SLG. Against righties at home, Bleday has a 159 wRC+.
He’ll get one tonight in Padres’ right-hander Randy Vasquez, who has a 5.69 xERA on the season.
William Contreras Home Run Odds for Tuesday
William Contreras has been rather disappointing this season, slashing .271/.341/.399 with 13 home runs in 546 plate appearances. We saw him homer on August 29th, which was his second two-hit game in a row, so maybe he’s slowly getting hot at the plate.
We’re getting hitter-friendly conditions at Wrigley Field for this game, including 88-degree temperatures with the wind blowing out. This is reflected in the total, which currently sits at 10 runs.
We’re also getting longer than +450 odds at the time of this article, so it’s a favorable price as well.
Photo Credit: REUTERS
