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Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Tuesday, September 8
Home Run props have been extremely difficult lately, so we’re taking a different approach. On today’s slate, we’re focusing entirely on the Diamondbacks vs. Royals game. It’s one of two games with a 9.5-run total. Forecasts are calling for 94-degree temperatures, which is quite hitter-friendly. Expect the ball to carry in this heat.
Ketel Marte Home Run Odds
Ketel Marte came into Monday’s action with a .251/.317/.448 slash with 22 home runs in 540 plate appearances. While the barrel rate is down 3.5%, it’s still at a respectable 10.0%.
Marte is a hitter with a strong track record, homering 20+ times in four straight seasons, including 36 in 2024. It’s a pretty good spot against Michael Wacha, who has a 1.22 HR/9 on the season.
Salvador Perez Home Run Odds
Salvador Perez came into Monday’s action with a .226/.271/.383 slash with 19 home runs in 580 plate appearances. It’s been a disappointing year where the 36-year-old has shown clear signs of decline.
But the good news is that Perez has homered twice in his last five games. As a power hitter with a strong track record, you have to like the matchup against Corbin Burnes, who is making his first start since June 1st, 2025.
It may take some time for Burnes to get in a groove, so he’s someone we want to target here.
Bobby Witt Jr. Home Run Odds
Bobby Witt Jr. came into Monday’s action with a .285/.362/.455 slash with 17 home runs in 553 plate appearances. While the overall line is solid, the lack of power is a bit disappointing.
However, we saw him homer on September 4th, so perhaps this can be the start of a power surge. The hitter-friendly weather at Kauffman Stadium helps as well.
Photo Credit: REUTERS
