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We missed on Pete Alonso, Matt Chapman, and Dansby Swanson as our home run picks on Tuesday. We’ll look to get back in the winning column on Wednesday’s slate.
Today, we’re going with Cody Bellinger, Mike Yastrzemski, and Lawrence Butler. Each of these hitters has a favorable matchup in a hitter-friendly environment.
Keep reading to find out about our MLB home run predictions for today. Also, be sure to check out our daily MLB betting trends page.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 5-47 (-2.15 units)
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Wednesday, April 15
Cody Bellinger Home Run Odds
Cody Bellinger came into Tuesday’s action with a .237/.329/.339 slash with one home run in 70 plate appearances. We all know how Bellinger is a perfect fit in Yankee Stadium as a left-handed bat with that short porch in right field, making it easier to hit home runs there. This is reflected in last year’s numbers, including a .544 slugging percentage at home (.414) on the road.
Up next is a terrific matchup against Jack Kochanowicz. The Angels’ righty has a major problem with allowing hard contact, including a 12.2% barrel rate, which ranks in the 23rd percentile. Last season, Kochanowicz allowed a 2.25 HR/9 to lefties (0.84 HR/9), so that’s great news for Bellinger here.
On top of that, Bellinger has had success vs. Kochanowicz throughout his career, homering once with a .624 expected slugging percentage in five plate appearances. With that in mind, we’ll take a shot on Bellinger to hit home run No. 2 tonight. Risk 0.1 units.
Mike Yastrzemski Home Run Odds
Mike Yastrzemski came into Tuesday with a .192/.300/.269 slash and zero home runs in 60 plate appearances. The batted ball metrics look abysmal as well, as highlighted by a 2.8% barrel rate, which ranks in the 15th percentile. However, I’m targeting Yastrzemski for two reasons here.
For one, Chris Paddack is starting for the Marlins, and he has major issues with the long ball. The veteran righty is allowing an 8.3% barrel rate this season (44th percentile). Last year, Paddack gave up a 1.77 HR/9. It was even worse vs. lefties (1.99 HR/9) compared to righties (1.53 HR/9).
Additionally, Yastrzemski has crushed Paddack throughout his career. In 25 plate appearances, he has three home runs with a .752 expected slugging percentage.
So, here we have one of the best pitchers to target for home runs, facing a left-handed hitter who has hit well against him. Considering these circumstances, we’ll take a shot that Yastrzemski can go yard for the first time this year. Risk 0.1 units.
Lawrence Butler Home Run Odds
Lawrence Butler is currently slashing .180/.255/.320 with two home runs in 55 plate appearances. He homered in his last game on April 13th, so perhaps this can be the start of a hot streak. Butler’s numbers are a lot better against righties (90 wRC+) compared to lefties (-12 wRC+) this season, and he’ll get one tonight in Kumar Rocker.
The young right-hander had a really tough time against left-handers last year, allowing a .388 wOBA and a 1.62 HR/9. To make matters worse for him, this game will be played at Sutter Health Park, which is a home run haven. Simply put, it’s one of the most hitter-friendly environments in baseball.
Then you have to consider that Butler has hit well against Rocker throughout his career, homering once with an .894 expected slugging percentage in 5 plate appearances. Butler checks a lot of boxes that I look for when choosing home run props: favorable matchup, hitter-friendly environment, and strong batter-vs-pitcher data. Risk 0.1 units.
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