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We cooled off on Tuesday, getting shut out on Jac Caglianone, Kyle Manzardo, and Alex Bregman. Let’s try to get back on track with the Wednesday slate.
Today, we’re going with Matt Olson, Willson Contreras, and Logan O’Hoppe. Each of these hitters is hitting the ball hard and in the air lately.
Keep reading to find out about our MLB home run predictions for today. Also, be sure to check out our daily MLB betting trends page.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 10-63 (-1.66 units)
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Wednesday, April 22
Matt Olson Home Run Odds
Matt Olson is off to a terrific start to the season. Entering Tuesday’s action, Olson had a .278/.365/.589 slash with six home runs in 104 plate appearances. This includes an impressive 20.3% barrel rate and a 45.3% hard-hit rate.
We’ve seen Olson homer twice in his last six games. He’s also put up a 63.2% fly ball rate (8th) and a 47.4% hard-hit rate (30th) in the last seven days.
You have to like the matchup against Nationals’ right-hander Zack Littell. The veteran just got rocked for eight earned runs against the Giants in his last outing. Littell has now allowed seven home runs in 19 innings this year.
Lefties have been even more of a problem for Littell, as he’s giving up a .446 wOBA and a 4.66 HR/9 against them.
It’s a great spot for Olson, so we’ll take him to homer for the seventh time this season. Risk 0.1 units.
Willson Contreras Home Run Odds
Willson Contreras came into Tuesday’s action with a .274/.404/.466 slash with four home runs in 89 plate appearances. He’s making a lot of hard contact, including a 16.7% barrel rate and a 47.9% hard-hit rate.
On top of that, just like Olson, Contreras is hitting the ball in the air (60.0% fly ball rate) while making hard contact (40.0% hard-hit rate) in the last seven days.
While it’s a tough matchup against Yankees’ left-hander Max Fried, Contreras has hit lefties well throughout his career, putting up a 136 wRC+ (118 wRC+ vs. righties). Plus, Fried hasn’t been his usual self so far, as highlighted by the 4.17 SIERA.
With that in mind, we’ll ride with Contreras to go yard in this spot. Risk 0.1 units.
Logan O’Hoppe Home Run Odds
Logan O’Hoppe entered Tuesday’s game against the Blue Jays with a .197/.316/.258 slash with one home run in 79 plate appearances. The overall numbers aren’t good, but I like the batted ball metrics, including a 10.6% barrel rate and a 114.3 MPH maximum exit velocity.
Just like the other names on this list, O’Hoppe has been putting the ball in the air (60.0% fly ball rate) in the last seven days. He’s going up against lefty Eric Lauer in this spot. Lauer is allowing a 2.04 HR/9 and a 9.4% barrel rate so far this year.
So, here we have a hitter who is lifting the ball, facing a pitcher who has struggled with home runs.
Add in the fact that we’re getting longshot odds since this is a hitter off to a slow start, and you can see why this looks appealing. Let’s take a shot on O’Hoppe here. Risk 0.1 units.
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