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We got shut out on Tuesday, as Yordan Alvarez, Sal Stewart, and Cal Raleigh each failed to homer. We’ll try to get back on track for the Wednesday slate.
Today, we’re going with Munetaka Murakami, Cal Raleigh, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Despite losing on Raleigh on Tuesday, I’m going with him for the second straight night. Remember to be sure to check out our daily MLB betting trends page.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 15-79 (-1.42 units)
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Wednesday, April 29
Munetaka Murakami Home Run Odds
Munetaka Murakami came into Tuesday’s action with a .243/.373/.592 slash with 12 home runs in 126 plate appearances. The batted ball metrics have been insane, including a 22.2% barrel rate.
We’re getting a better price than usual on Murakami on Wednesday because a lefty is on the mound in Yusei Kikuchi. Murakami has a .161 batting average against lefties. However, he’s been able to homer four times off them.
Kikuchi has also allowed a .400 wOBA vs. left-handers, which isn’t typical for southpaws. Remember, this is a pitcher who gives up a lot of hard contact, as highlighted by a 9.2% barrel rate.
On top of that, we’re getting favorable weather in Chicago, with 10 MPH winds blowing out to right field. That plays right into Murakami’s skill set as a pull hitter. Risk 0.1 units.
Cal Raleigh Home Run Odds
Cal Raleigh cooled off on Tuesday, failing to hit a home run after he had gone yard five times in his previous seven games. There are a couple of encouraging factors that have me calling Raleigh’s name once again.
For one, he’s absolutely owned Wednesday’s starter, Taj Bradley. In six career plate appearances vs. Bradley, Raleigh has two home runs with a 1.886 expected slugging percentage.
On top of that, we all know how Target Field plays well for left-handed power hitters. If that’s not enough, you have to like the weather conditions here, as forecasts are calling for 11.1 MPH winds blowing out to right field, which plays right into Raleigh’s skills.
Given how hot the one they call “Big Dumper” has been at the plate, we’ll take a shot on him here. Risk 0.1 units.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Home Run Odds
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is off to a strong start, coming into Tuesday’s action with a .330/.415/.447 slash with two home runs in 118 plate appearances. The one issue has been the lack of power. However, the batted ball metrics look solid, including a 13.6% barrel rate.
It’s only a matter of time before Vlad Jr. starts hitting bombs. Perhaps he can get going against Brayan Bello, who is struggling this season, allowing an 8.29 xERA and 16.1% barrel rate.
We also have to acknowledge how Vlad Jr. has crushed Bello throughout his career, putting up two home runs and a .642 expected slugging percentage in 31 career plate appearances.
With that in mind, this is the ideal matchup for Guerrero to go yard. We’ll take a shot that he finally snaps out of this season-long power drought, starting in this game. Risk 0.1 units.
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