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We had a big bounce back on Tuesday, as James Wood and Bobby Witt Jr. each went yard. Let’s try to start a hot streak with another profitable day on Wednesday.
Today, we’re going with Ben Rice, JJ Bleday, and Ceddanne Rafaela. Each of these hitters is either in a good spot or is swinging a hot bat right now.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 25-111 (-1.07 units)
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Wednesday, May 13
Ben Rice Home Run Odds
Ben Rice has lived up to the hype so far, coming into Tuesday’s action with a .312/.417/.696 slash with 13 home runs in 151 plate appearances. He’s walking at a high rate (15.2%) while keeping the strikeout rate in check (25.2%). The batted ball metrics also look excellent (21.3% barrel rate).
As a left-handed hitter, Rice is better vs. righties (203 wRC+), and he’ll get one today in Kyle Bradish. While Bradish bounced back in his last start, he has struggled this year, putting up a 4.31 xERA and a 1.10 HR/9. When Bradish faced the Yankees on May 2nd, he allowed two home runs in four innings. One of those homers was hit by Rice.
Not only is this game at a hitter’s park in Camden Yards, but we’re also getting favorable weather, with forecasts calling for 14.4 MPH winds blowing out to left-center.
Simply put, Rice has been one of the best hitters in MLB this year, so we have to ride with him vs. Bradish. Risk 0.1 units.
JJ Bleday Home Run Odds
JJ Bleday has been a pleasant surprise for the Reds, coming into Tuesday’s action with a .262/.392/.643 slash with four home runs in 54 plate appearances. He’s trimmed his strikeout rate from 26.5% to 13.7% while putting up a career-high 17.1% barrel rate. This is a red-hot hitter that we have to ride with here.
Not only is this game at a home run haven in Great American Ball Park, but it’s also a great matchup vs. Nationals’ right-hander Jake Irvin, who is giving up a 12.3% barrel rate on the season. In six career plate appearances vs. Irvin, Bleday has one home run with a .787 expected slugging percentage.
With Bleday continuing to swing a hot bat, it makes sense to take a shot, especially since the game is at home vs. a home run-prone pitcher like Irvin. Risk 0.1 units.
Ceddanne Rafaela Home Run Odds
Ceddanne Rafaela came into Tuesday’s action with a .269/.336/.400 slash with three home runs in 143 plate appearances. While the batted ball metrics are underwhelming (7.1% barrel rate), Rafaela is starting to heat up, homering twice in his last five games.
Up next is an exploitable matchup vs. Phillies’ right-hander Andrew Painter, who has registered a 4.96 xERA and a 1.65 HR/9. The 23-year-old has allowed at least one home run in four consecutive outings, including three vs. the Athletics in his last start.
Forecasts are calling for 12.8 MPH winds blowing out to left field at Fenway Park, which favors right-handed hitters like Rafaela. The matchup is right, he’s in good form, and the weather is favorable. That checks the boxes we’re looking for with a home run prop. Risk 0.1 units.
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