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We were shut out on Tuesday, as Ronald Acuna Jr., Bobby Witt Jr., and Konnor Griffin each failed to hit home runs. Let’s try to bounce back with the Wednesday slate.
Today, we’re going with Andy Pages, Xander Bogaerts, and Brent Rooker.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 28-125 (-1.32 units)
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Wednesday, May 20
Andy Pages Home Run Odds
Andy Pages is currently slashing .294/.343/.506 with 10 home runs in 198 plate appearances. It’s been a breakout season with Pages, highlighted by an elite hard-hit rate (48.3%), which is a major improvement from last season (37.2%). While Pages has only one home run in his last 10 games, I like the spot for him tonight.
He’s going up against Padres’ right-hander Randy Vasquez. While the veteran righty has performed well this season, the underlying metrics point towards regression, as highlighted by a 4.79 xERA and an 11.3% barrel rate.
It also bodes well for this wager that Pages has good numbers against Vasquez throughout his career. This includes two home runs with a 1.021 expected slugging percentage in six plate appearances.
Given these factors, you have to like the price on Pages here, which was at nearly +600 odds at the time of this article. Risk 0.1 units.
Xander Bogaerts Home Run Odds
Xander Bogaerts is slashing .253/.324/.394 with seven home runs in 188 plate appearances. While those numbers are underwhelming, it’s a bit intriguing to see seven homers already, after he hit only 11 in each of the last two seasons.
The veteran infielder has two home runs in May so far, but I’m willing to take a shot on him at a longshot price of +800 odds at the time of this article, even against a tough matchup against Shohei Ohtani.
Surprisingly, Bogaerts has good numbers against Ohtani throughout his career, homering once with a .731 expected slugging percentage in 10 plate appearances. I know that’s an extremely small sample, but I’ll take a chance on this at +800.
Ride with Bogaerts to hit his eighth homer of the season in this spot. Risk 0.1 units.
Brent Rooker Home Run Odds
Brent Rooker is slashing .200/.285/.392 with seven home runs in 137 plate appearances. The veteran slugger got off to a slow start, then missed time due to injury. But now, he seems to be finding his groove.
Rooker has two home runs in his last five games and five in May so far.
Up next is a matchup against Angels’ right-hander Jack Kochanowicz, who has a 5.53 xERA on the season. In five career plate appearances vs. Kochanowicz, Rooker has one home run and a .988 expected slugging percentage.
With how well Rooker is swinging the bat in May, it makes sense to take a shot on him at nearly +400 odds at the time of this article. Remember, this is a slugger with three consecutive 30+ home run seasons. There’s a strong track record here.
With that in mind, we’ll go with Rooker to go yard here. Risk 0.1 units.
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