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We got shut out on Tuesday, as both Colson Montgomery and Teoscar Hernandez failed to hit home runs, while Dominic Canzone got the night off after the A’s switched their starter from righty Luis Severino to lefty Gage Jump.
Today, we’re going with Julio Rodriguez, Brandon Lowe, and Aaron Judge. Let’s try to get back on track, as we were starting to get hot, with wins on Sunday and Monday.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 32-141 (-1.34 units)
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Wednesday, May 27
Julio Rodriguez Home Run Odds
Julio Rodriguez is currently slashing .259/.320/.429 with nine home runs in 244 plate appearances. This is a notorious slow starter who is finally finding his groove, putting up a .265/.308/.531 slash in May so far.
We’ve seen Julio absolutely mash lefties this year, registering a 183 wRC+ (92 wRC+ against righties). That’s good news because he’ll get one today in Jeffrey Springs.
Springs has had issues with the long ball, allowing a 1.61 HR/9. In his last outing, he gave up three home runs. This game is in a bandbox that is Sutter Health Park. A home run-friendly environment bodes well for Julio here.
On top of that, we’ve seen Julio have success against Springs throughout his career, putting up two home runs with a .637 expected slugging percentage in 14 plate appearances.
With that in mind, we’ll take a shot on Julio to hit No. 10 today. Risk 0.1 units.
Brandon Lowe Home Run Odds
Brandon Lowe is slashing .270/.356/.550 with 13 home runs in 216 plate appearances this season. It’s been a fantastic debut season in Pittsburgh for the veteran second baseman.
Lowe has hit safely in seven of his last eight games, including a home run on May 21, so he’s coming in hot. As a left-handed hitter, Lowe is much better against righties (176 wRC+) than lefties (90 wRC+).
That’s good news because he’ll get one today in Jameson Taillon. The Cubs’ right-hander has a major issue with home runs, putting up a 2.77 HR/9 so far. He allowed five homers in a May 16 outing vs. the White Sox.
Additionally, we’ve seen Lowe have success vs. Taillon in his career. In 17 plate appearances, Lowe has two home runs with a .686 expected slugging percentage.
Considering these factors, we’ll take Lowe to hit his 14th homer of the season tonight. Risk 0.1 units.
Aaron Judge Home Run Odds
Aaron Judge is currently slashing .256/.386/.563 with 17 home runs in 243 plate appearances. After a brief cold streak, Judge is starting to get back in a groove again. He’s hit safely in each of his last two games, including a home run on May 24.
Judge has been crushing lefties this season, putting up a 172 wRC+ against them. That’s good news because he’ll get one tonight in Noah Cameron.
In six career plate appearances against Cameron, Judge has one home run with a 1.000 expected slugging percentage.
Playing at Kauffman Stadium, which is more of a hitter’s park now that they moved the fences in, it’s a good spot for Judge to hit his 18th home run of the season. Risk 0.1 units.
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