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We had another profitable night on Tuesday, as Bryce Harper went yard to make up for James Wood and Jac Caglianone missing.
Today, we’re riding with Shohei Ohtani, Munetaka Murakami, and Matt Olson. Let’s see if we can make it a third winning slate in a row.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 20-95 (-1.2 units)
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Wednesday, May 6
Shohei Ohtani Home Run Odds
Shohei Ohtani has been a bit disappointing at the plate this season, slashing .240/.382/.432 with six home runs in 158 plate appearances. These are way below career norms. It appears that the idea that Ohtani doesn’t hit as well when he’s pitching for a full year is starting to look bang on.
With that said, it’s only a matter of time before Ohtani starts swinging a hot bat. The batted ball metrics still look fantastic, as highlighted by an 18.5%. barrel rate. He’s currently in a 0-for-24 slump, but I like him to get back on track vs. Lance McCullers Jr.
The Astros’ righty has a 4.37 xERA on the season, allowing a 1.15 HR/9 and an 8.6% barrel rate. The numbers are even worse against lefties like Ohtani, including a 1.56 HR/9.
With that in mind, this looks like the ideal spot for Ohtani to go yard for the seventh time this season. Risk 0.1 units.
Munetaka Murakami Home Run Odds
Munetaka Murakami has shattered preseason expectations in the first month of his big league career, slashing .244/.378/.583 with 14 home runs in 156 plate appearances.
He’s striking out at a very high rate (32.7 K%), but the walk rate has been otherworldly (17.9 BB%). You also have to love the 22.1% barrel rate.
Murakami has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball of late, homering nine times in his last 17 games. We’ve got favorable weather at Angels Stadium, with forecasts calling for 7.6 MPH winds blowing out, so it’s a favorable spot for Murakami.
While today’s starter, Walbert Urena, has done a good job limiting hard contact, Murakami can homer off any pitcher with his elite raw power. With as hot as he’s been, we have to ride with him in this spot.
Bet on Murakami to hit his 15th homer of the season. Risk 0.1 units.
Matt Olson Home Run Odds
Matt Olson is having a major bounce-back season, slashing .308/.392/.685 with 13 home runs in 166 plate appearances. This includes an elite 19.4% barrel rate, so Olson is absolutely crushing the ball.
The veteran first baseman is in top form right now, homering in six of his last nine games.
While the matchup is tough on paper vs. Bryan Woo, the Mariners’ right-hander lately. In his last two starts, Woo has given up a combined 13 earned runs, with six home runs.
There’s a chance that something is up with Woo right now. It’s unlike him to get rocked two games in a row. There’s a slight chance that he’s pitching through an injury.
With how well Olson is hitting right now, we’re going with him to hit No. 14 here. Risk 0.1 units.
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