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Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Wednesday, September 9
Jarren Duran Home Run Odds
Jarren Duran came into Tuesday’s action with a .204/.259/.365 slash with 20 home runs in 565 plate appearances. It’s been an extremely disappointing season for Duran, but at least he still has a 9.8% barrel rate, which aligns with his career norms.
Duran has also homered twice in his last eight games, so he’s been hitting a bit better lately. I like the spot at home against the Angels in a projected high-scoring game, as highlighted by the 9.5-run total.
You have to like the pitching matchup as well, as right-hander Ryan Johnson has a 5.30 xERA and a 1.84 HR/9 on the season. In a small sample, Duran has a 1.495 expected slugging percentage with one homer in two plate appearances.
Aaron Judge Home Run Odds
With how hard home runs have been in the second half, we’re riding with some chalk. All rise for Aaron Judge, who returned to the lineup for the Yankees on Tuesday. He came into the night with a .248/.375/.533 slash with 17 home runs in 261 plate appearances.
Even though the production is down, he’s still generating a ton of hard contact, including an otherworldly 21.4% barrel rate.
I love the spot against Tomoyuki Sugano, who has a 6.80 xERA and a 1.85 HR/9 on the season. Judge has three home runs and a 1.328 expected slugging percentage in 10 career plate appearances vs. Sugano.
Rafael Devers Home Run Odds
Rafael Devers is currently slashing .260/.342/.522 with 35 home runs in 620 plate appearances. He’s been one of the hottest hitters in baseball, homering six times in his last eight games.
I like the spot vs. Cardinals’ right-hander Andre Pallante. That’s because Devers has performed well against him in a small sample, with one homer in 12 plate appearances.
Simply put, this is a bet on a red-hot hitter, set to take on a pitcher who he’s familiar with.
Photo Credit: REUTERS
