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We have a relatively modest six-game slate on tap in the NBA on Thursday night, but there are almost exclusively matchups between postseason contenders. Consequently, we have a quartet of intriguing player props to consider:
Thursday’s Best NBA Player Props
- Jalen Duren, Pistons- Over Rebounds
- LaMelo Ball Under Points + Assists
- Jalen Williams, Thunder – Over Points + Rebounds
- Toumani Camara, Trail Blazers – Over Points + Rebounds + Assists
Jalen Duren Over Rebounds (Line/odds update dynamically throughout game) Original Pre-Game Line: 10.5
Duren has taken on a significant bump in usage during the extended absence of Cade Cunningham due to his collapsed lung, and although the big man’s offensive numbers have certainly seen a bump, it’s his rebounds we’ll focus on for tonight’s marquee matchup against the Timberwolves. Duren comes into the showdown with Rudy Gobert running hot, averaging 10.9 rebounds across 29.7 minutes per contest over his last 11 games, a span where he’s pulled down double-digit boards in all but two games.
The Timberwolves aren’t a prohibitive matchup for centers despite Gobert’s presence, as they’ve surrendered the fifth-most rebounds per game to the position in the last 15 (15.7). Additionally, Minnesota is conceding the third-most total rebounds per game in the last three contests (60.7), and Detroit is allowing the third-lowest shooting percentage at home (43.7%), which should continue to lead plenty of opportunity on the defensive glass for Duren. The big man is also seeing a whopping 19.8 rebounding chances per game and converting them at a 53.8% clip, which further ups his chances of cashing this prop Thursday.
LaMelo Ball Under Points + Assists (Line/odds update dynamically throughout game) Original Pre-Game Line: 26.5
Ball is certainly capable of some gaudy points + assists totals any time he’s on the floor, and the talented guard went on a productive run for the majority of March that included an average of 28.7 points + assists over his last 13 games of the month. However, Ball’s 41.6% shooting over that span is a reminder of how inefficient he can be on the offensive end, and Thursday, the stage could be set for another ragged night from the floor in a tough interconference matchup against a defensively-savvy Suns squad that has done a solid job all season with limiting point guard production.
Phoenix comes into Thursday’s clash allowing the ninth-fewest points (23.1) and third-fewest assists (7.4) to PGs in the last 15 games. Ball is averaging a career-low 27.8 minutes per contest as well as Charlotte aims to keep the oft-injured guard healthy ahead of the postseason, so he figures to have to be more efficient than usual with his shot to have a chance to eclipse the 26.5 figure. Phoenix isn’t likely to make that an easy proposition, considering the Suns are allowing just 34.6% three-point shooting and are giving up the sixth-fewest points + assists per game in the league (136.0).
Jalen Williams Over Points + Rebounds (Line/odds update dynamically throughout game) Original Pre-Game Line: 21.5
Williams’ posted lines have been somewhat modest since his return from a hamstring injury, but the talented wing has delivered some solid numbers in three of his first four games back. Williams has recorded tallies of 22, 24 and 23 points + rebounds in three of those contests, with the only exception being a seven-point dud on 2-for-9 shooting in a difficult matchup against a talented Celtics squad. Otherwise, Williams is shooting 56.1% in the other trio of games, allaying any concerns about rust from his extended layoff.
The Lakers conceded 26 points + rebounds to Williams across 24 minutes in his one prior meeting with them this season back on Feb. 9. Los Angeles has been relatively stingy against small forwards overall this season, but the Lakers are allowing 48.3% shooting overall, including 37.1% three-point shooting on the road. Williams is also converting a solid 57% of his 8.2 rebounding chances per game, which further solidifies his case in a game that should be competitive and therefore afford him a solid allotment of minutes.
Toumani Camara Over Points + Rebounds + Assists (Line/odds update dynamically throughout game) Original Pre-Game Line: 21.5
Camara has been one of the key complementary figures in the Trail Blazers’ ascension this season, and the versatile wing heads into Thursday’s favorable matchup against the Pelicans in the midst of a strong stretch of games where he’s often picked it up on the offensive end. Camara is averaging 16.7 points, 4.4 rebounds, 1.4 assists and 1.4 steals across his last nine contests, draining an impressive 56.5% of his shots, including 50.0% from behind the arc, in that sample. He’s also facing a Pelicans team he’s enjoyed success against this season, as Camara is averaging 23.0 points + rebounds + assists and 40% three-point shooting versus New Orleans in three games.
The Pels are allowing 37.8 points + rebounds + assists to small forwards in the last 15 games, and they’ve also given up the fifth-highest offensive efficiency rating to the position for the season (25.4). New Orleans is conceding 47.7% shooting, including 37.7% from behind the arc, to threes, and the Pelicans are allowing the seventh-most rebounds (54.8, including 59.3 in the last three games) on the season and sixth-most assists per road game (28.7). In short, Camara has no shortage of metrics in his favor, not least of which is Portland’s 119-point implied team total.
Photo Credit: AP/Frank Franklin II
