NFL Betting Bankroll Management

Bankroll management is one of the most important aspects of any good sports betting process. Unfortunately, it is also one of the most overlooked. Many bettors are plagued by their inability to stick with a good system and practice discipline. When it comes down to it, you simply cannot bet money that you don’t have. While everyone operates with their own specific betting bankroll, several general tips and strategies can be applied to any bankroll management plan. This article will look at several things to keep in mind and put into practice to help you effectively manage your NFL betting bankroll, from the preseason all the way through Week 18.

Preseason NFL Betting Bankroll Management Strategies

The NFL betting process for any successful handicapper starts long before the NFL season kicks off. Power rankings must be created, roster moves analyzed, and rookie projections made. It is important to spend time on your NFL betting bankroll before the season begins as well. This section highlights three things that should be on every NFL bettor’s preseason to-do list.

Make a Plan

As the old saying goes, “Failing to plan is planning to fail.” If you intend to bet the NFL regularly throughout an entire regular season, you must outline the details of your finances ahead of time. By definition, a bankroll in sports betting is the amount of money that an individual has set aside to make wagers with. You should know in full what your allotted bankroll will be for NFL betting before the start of the season. Make a firm plan to not bet beyond this amount of money, even if you wind up losing it all.

You should also outline a fixed amount of your bankroll to bet with for any given week. Weekly and by-game play amounts will be discussed further in later sections, but a general rule of thumb is to not have more than 20% of your original bankroll in play at any one time. With 18 weeks of regular season football to get through, a bankroll that is 40% exposed in Week 2 leaves you with nothing to work with in December.

Create Your Unit System

In sports betting, a unit is the standard size of a single bet, expressed as a percentage of your bankroll rather than as a dollar figure. Before the start of an annual NFL betting campaign, good bankroll management practice should involve building the unit system you will stick to for the entire season. Determining a unit system should be done based on the size of your bankroll. Most systems set one unit at 1% of the total bankroll, though anywhere from 1% to 2% is defensible. This will be different for everyone, but most unit systems tend to follow a proportional scale. For some, a single unit wager might only be $10. For some, it might be $50, or $100, or $1,000.

In general, it is advisable to base your unit system on numbers that are easily multiplied. That way, if you choose to make occasional two or three-unit wagers, you can easily calculate what that amount would be by multiplying a single unit by the size you wish to bet. For example, a two-unit wager with a unit system that has a base number of $10 would be $20. A three-unit wager with a system based at $100 would be $300. And so on.

Set Profit Goals

Another part of your preseason NFL bankroll preparation should involve setting goals. You should go in with a set amount of profit in mind. Based on the size of your bankroll and what you determine your unit system to be, you should go on to declare a specific unit profit goal that you hope to make betting throughout the entire NFL season. Framing the target in units rather than dollars keeps the goal honest, because it stays tied to the size of your bankroll instead of to a number that sounds good.

Be Realistic

Of course, having an unrealistic goal will do you no good. Targeting an excessive number of units in profit will ultimately lead to frustration when the realization that you won’t reach your goal occurs. For context, a bettor who hits 55% of their spread bets at standard -110 pricing is doing very well over a full season, and that clip returns roughly five units of profit across 100 wagers. Setting an attainable goal is the best way to keep you on track throughout the long season. It’s better to exceed a sensible goal than to set one that is too lofty and fall depressingly short.

In-Season NFL Betting Bankroll Management Strategies

The weekly action and betting opportunities that the NFL provides over an 18-week regular season, in which every team plays 17 games and takes a single bye, is unrivaled by any other sport. Add the postseason, where 14 teams now compete across four rounds, and you are looking at roughly five months of betting decisions. If you have followed the preseason guidelines for NFL bankroll management, you will be in good shape by the time Week 1 rolls around. This section discusses several tips to help you stay on top of your NFL bankroll while placing wagers during the season.

Systematically Determine How Many Units to Bet

If you are going to spend time creating a unit system in the preseason, you’d be remiss to not stick by it when placing your NFL bets during the season. Since most bankrolls and systems are constructed so that a unit is equivalent to 1% of the total bankroll, 1-unit sized bets are ideal and should be the most common. As discussed above, the size of a single unit will vary from person to person based on their overall bankroll. But regardless of whether you are betting in units of $100 or $1, the math still breaks down the same.

How does one determine exactly how much to bet on a given game? There are any number of models that NFL bettors can choose to utilize to help decide how many units of a bankroll to bet on a given wager. A few popular options are touched on below.

Fixed Unit Model

This is the recommended approach for beginner bettors specifically, but it isn’t a bad system for even seasoned handicappers to adhere to. As the name implies, the Fixed Unit Model approach is one where every wager placed will be one unit in size. This approach makes it easier to track your bets and ensures that you will keep your wagers consistent, regardless of wins, losses, or any other outside factors. If you are still building the rest of your process around it, our NFL betting strategy for beginners covers the fundamentals that pair with a fixed unit system.

Percentage Model

Like the Fixed Unit Model, the Percentage Model also operates with a level of consistency in that wagers remain one unit of your bankroll. The difference is that the size of a single unit fluctuates as the size of your bankroll grows or shrinks based on the results of previous wagers. For example, if you start the NFL season off with a bankroll of $1,000 and win $20 during Week 1, your bankroll would be $1,020 going into Week 2. Where a single-unit bet in Week 1 would have been $10, the same single unit wager in Week 2 with a bankroll that is $20 more would be $10.20. The same strategy would apply if you lost $20 in Week 1, in which case a single-unit bet in Week 2 would only be $9.80. To implement the Percentage Model, simply multiply whatever percentage of your original bankroll you assign to be one unit at the beginning of the season by the size of your bankroll heading into the current week.

Variable Models

Variable models enable you to determine the size of your wagers based on your level of confidence in winning the bet. This allows you to potentially reap a greater profit on games in which you have more sizable edges. While betting four or five units of your bankroll on a single wager is not advised, a variable approach allows you to wager two or three units on games in which you have a higher confidence level.

One example of a variable model is the Potential Return Method. With this approach, rather than one unit being the amount you bet on a wager, it becomes the amount you attempt to win. This method means that you will bet more of your bankroll betting on favorites than plus-money underdogs. For example, a moneyline bet of -150 will require you to bet 1.5 units to win 1 unit. Meanwhile, a bet on a +150 underdog will require a .67-unit wager to win 1 unit of profit.

Kelly Criterion Model

The Kelly Criterion Model factors in the percentage of the time in which you believe a wager will win, the odds, and the amount of bankroll you have. The formula for this model is as follows:

• Stake % of bankroll = (bp − q) ÷ b
• b = the decimal odds minus 1, or the profit you win per unit staked
• p = your estimated probability of the bet winning
• q = the probability of the bet losing, or 1 − p

Say you are looking at a -110 spread, which converts to decimal odds of 1.91, and you believe your side wins 55% of the time. That gives you b = 0.91, p = 0.55, and q = 0.45. Run the numbers and Kelly calls for roughly 5.5% of your bankroll, which is a far larger bet than most bettors should ever place on a single NFL game. This is why many bettors use fractional Kelly, staking a quarter or a half of what the formula recommends.

By far the most math-heavy model of any discussed here, the success of the Kelly Criterion Model depends heavily on your ability to accurately determine win percentages. Overestimate your edge by even a few points and the formula will tell you to bet far more than you should. It also requires successful conversion of odds into decimal form, which can be easily accomplished through online odds converters. The Kelly Criterion Model is worthy of an entire strategy article itself. This overview hardly scratches its surface.

Stay Disciplined

As a sports bettor, staying disciplined can refer to any number of things. Concerning bankroll management, the thing that first comes to mind when considering discipline is to stay within your means. Do not overextend yourself on any one bet or during any one week of the NFL season. Whether you are winning or losing, it is important to stand by your system and your plan.

When things are going great, and you are finding success on your bets, it can be tempting to bet more to win more. On the contrary, when you hit a rough patch of losses, it can be tempting to bet more games to try and make back what you’re out. In both scenarios, it is important not to go chasing anything. Even if you go 0-for on all your bets for the week, don’t chase the Sunday or Monday night games to try and reduce your losses. Stay the course, regroup, learn from your defeats where you can, and come back stronger the following week.

Only Bet When You Have an Edge

In a similar vein to practicing good discipline, you should not bet NFL games just for the sake of having action. This approach is recreational and won’t get you far when it comes to making a long-term profit. Trust your power rankings, research, and strategy. Focus your energy on finding true advantages amongst the lines, and check the current NFL betting odds before committing to a number. Then and only then should you put money down on a game.

Make +EV Bets

Remember that the goal for any sports bettor is to bet with as much positive expected value (+EV) as possible. A bet is +EV when your estimated win probability is higher than the probability implied by the price you are getting. Doing so will result in a profitable betting venture over the long haul, even though it does very little to protect you in any single week. The simplest way to improve your expected value on a bet you have already decided to make is to shop the price, which is why holding accounts at several of the best NFL betting sites is worth the setup time. Half a point on a spread compounds across an 18-week season. For a detailed breakdown of expected value, its calculation, and how to find value when betting on the NFL, read our guide to expected value in NFL betting.

NFL Parlay Bankroll Management

Parlays and teasers deserve their own conversation, because they are where most NFL bankrolls quietly go to die. The appeal is obvious. A four-leg parlay at standard pricing pays around 12-to-1, which means a single unit turns into twelve. The problem is that the true odds of hitting four coin-flip legs are closer to 15-to-1, and that gap is the sportsbook’s margin. This section covers how to stake parlays without wrecking the plan you built in the preseason.

Why Parlays Are Harder on a Bankroll

Every leg you add to a parlay multiplies the hold the sportsbook takes. On a single -110 bet, the book’s theoretical hold is a little under 5%. Stack three legs together and that figure climbs into the double digits. Stack five and you are paying a toll on every leg at once.

The second problem is variance. A bettor placing ten single-unit spread bets in a week will usually finish somewhere near break-even. A bettor placing ten single-unit four-leg parlays in a week will most likely lose all ten, and will occasionally have a huge week. That swing is fine if your bankroll is built for it. It is a disaster if it isn’t.

How Much of Your Bankroll to Put on a Parlay

The unit system you built in the preseason should not carry over unchanged to parlays. Because the loss rate is so much higher, parlays call for fractional units rather than full ones. A few practical rules to work from:

• Stake a fraction of a unit. A quarter to a half unit per parlay is plenty. If one unit is $10, a parlay is a $2.50 to $5 bet.
• Cap your total weekly parlay exposure. Hold all parlays and teasers combined to no more than 5% of the money you have in play for the week.
• Keep the leg count low. Two and three-leg parlays are defensible when each leg is a bet you would have made on its own. Beyond four legs you are buying a lottery ticket.
• Never fund a parlay from a losing week. Parlay stakes come out of your planned weekly allocation, not out of the money you are trying to win back.

Same-Game Parlays and Correlation

Same-game parlays have become one of the most heavily promoted products in NFL betting, and they carry the steepest hold of anything on the board. Sportsbooks price the legs to account for correlation, meaning outcomes that naturally go together get repriced against you.

If a same-game parlay is part of your process, treat it as your smallest bet of the week rather than your biggest. Look for correlations the book has priced loosely, and be honest with yourself about how often you actually find one. From a bankroll standpoint, the safest way to handle same-game parlays is to fund them out of a small entertainment allocation that sits outside your main bankroll entirely.

Common Parlay Betting Mistakes to Avoid

Most parlay damage comes from a short list of repeated errors rather than from bad luck. Watch for these:

• Adding legs to chase a bigger payout. Every extra leg lowers your win probability faster than it raises your return.
• Padding with heavy favorites. A -400 leg adds almost nothing to the payout while still giving you a way to lose the whole ticket.
• Staking parlays like straight bets. A full unit on a four-leg parlay is not the same risk as a full unit on a spread, even though the ticket cost is identical.
• Treating a near miss as a signal. Going three-for-four is the expected outcome, not evidence that the approach is working.
• Building around a promo. Odds boosts and parlay insurance are marketing. Take them when they land on bets you already wanted, not the other way around.

While parlays and teaser bets have their place in NFL betting from time to time, when it comes to effective bankroll management it’s best to avoid making these types of wagers frequently. They certainly offer a level of fun and excitement, but the odds and value are not in your favor as the bettor. Pick your spots for parlays and teasers intelligently. For more information and strategy on these types of bets, read our full guide to NFL parlay and teaser betting.

NFL Betting Bankroll Management Reminders

Every sport is unique when it comes to betting strategy and bankroll management. While a lot of the same general guidelines for bankroll maintenance can be applied to all forms of sports betting, the NFL has a few unique features to be mindful of. This section addresses two very important ones.

The NFL is a Week to Week League

The fact that the NFL is a week to week league cannot be overstated when it comes to handicapping the sport. A 17-game schedule is a small sample, and each result carries far more weight in the public’s mind than it deserves. This makes it all the more important to stick to your guns and not make drastic process changes or decisions based on just one, two, or even three weeks. Instead, let the media and betting market do the overreacting. You will likely be able to find some tremendous value as a result. When it comes to bankroll management, your practices and systems should not change based on a small sample size of results.

The 18-week calendar also means bye weeks are baked into your planning. Every team sits out once, so your weekly slate of games you actually have an opinion on will shift throughout the season. Some weeks you will find five bets worth making. Some weeks you will find one. Your weekly allocation is a ceiling, not a quota.

The NFL is Tough to Beat

It is also important to remember that the NFL is one of the toughest sports leagues to beat at the sportsbooks. Because of the volume of bets placed on NFL games annually, oddsmakers devote more time to the sport than any other in terms of constructing lines and moving them accordingly as money comes in. Losses will happen, and you must not get discouraged. Don’t overextend to try and make lost money back. It won’t be easy, but by sticking to your system, you can find a profit off of betting the NFL.

NFL Bankroll Management FAQ

How do you manage your NFL betting bankroll during the season?

Set your unit size at 1% to 2% of your bankroll before Week 1 and keep it there. Bet one unit on the vast majority of your wagers, hold total weekly exposure to 20% of your bankroll or less, and only stake two or three units when you have a genuine edge. Recalculate your unit size on a fixed schedule rather than after every result, and never increase stakes to recover a losing week.

What is a good starting bankroll for NFL betting?

The right number is whatever you can afford to lose entirely without it affecting your life, because that is the realistic worst case. The practical floor is a bankroll large enough that a 1% unit is still a bet your sportsbook will accept. If the minimum bet is $1, a $100 bankroll technically works, though most bettors find $500 to $1,000 gives them enough room to absorb a bad stretch without abandoning the system.

How much should you bet on an NFL parlay?

A quarter to a half of your normal unit is a sensible ceiling for a single parlay, with all parlays and teasers combined capped at around 5% of your weekly allocation. Parlays lose far more often than straight bets, so staking them at full unit size will drain a bankroll much faster than the payouts replenish it.

Final Thoughts

Bankroll management is one of the most important components of successful sports betting ventures. There are several strategies to deploy both before and during the NFL season to stay on top of your betting finances. Before the season begins, make a plan, set realistic goals, and determine the size of your bankroll and your unit system. Once the season kicks off, you should plan to stick to single-unit bets the vast majority of the time. You can also choose to adopt a model by which you determine what your bet sizes will be and when to go beyond wagering a single unit. While parlays and teaser bets have their place, betting them frequently, or staking them like straight bets, is a recipe for bankroll depletion over the long haul. You should also remember the importance of staying disciplined. The NFL is one of the toughest sports to beat at the sportsbook, and the week to week nature of the league leads to many overreactions in the media and amongst the betting public. Don’t rip up the plan you laid out before the season over a couple of bad weeks. By practicing these strategies and keeping a cool head across all 18 weeks, you will have no trouble successfully managing your bankroll for NFL betting.

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