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There were 10 head coaching changes in the NFL this offseason. Ten teams elected to move on from their former head coach, seeking a change. From Super Bowl contenders like the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens to rebuilding teams like the Cleveland Browns and Miami Dolphins, everyone is looking for a fresh injection of positivity. But what NFL coaches have had the biggest impact on betting odds this season? What coaches and their teams are being undervalued, and who is being overvalued?
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New York Giants – John Harbaugh
- Super Bowl Odds:
- NFC East Odds:
The Giants have been stuck in a rut. A brief dalliance with the playoffs in 2022 was a brief respite, but the Giants have endured 11 losing seasons since 2013—making the playoffs just twice in that period. New York hasn’t been privy to much competent football recently, but the hope is that the former Baltimore Ravens’ head coach can lift the team to new heights. Not that the bar is particularly high. But for now, there’s some positivity in the air. The Giants potentially have their quarterback of the future under center in Jaxson Dart, entering his second season in the NFL, some intriguing playmakers like Malik Nabers and Cam Skattebo around him, and one of the best defensive fronts in the league to boot. With Harbaugh coaching the team, there’s reason to believe the Giants are on the up.
The Giants have just +600 odds to win the NFC East, a division that features three potential playoff contenders. But the brakes should be pumped just a little bit. Dart is entering his second season in the NFL and still has a long way to go before he can be crowned King of New York, and as is often the case, the team goes as far as the quarterback can take them. How well can Dart shine in offensive coordinator Matt Nagy’s offense? Nagy hasn’t always been a playcaller capable of lifting an offense with his game plan. Harbaugh’s reputation as a culture-setter and someone who can turn the tide is well-founded. He helped turn the Ravens into one of the NFL’s most consistent franchises over the last twenty years, but big changes won’t happen overnight—especially in New York.
Pittsburgh Steelers – Mike McCarthy
- Super Bowl Odds:
- AFC North Odds:
The Steelers’ commitment to consistency has to be applauded. They made the playoffs 12 times in the Mike Tomlin era and famously never had a losing season in that time. But that commitment to consistency was their undoing over the final years of Tomlin’s time in charge. Moving on from Tomlin felt like a chance to reset, but the Steelers opted to hire Pittsburgh native Mike McCarthy, a move that may keep the Steelers on the path to nine wins, but not one that will inspire a world of confidence that things can truly be different. The Steelers roster is in a strange spot. Aaron Rodgers, the 42-year-old quarterback, has re-signed with the team in what could be his final season in the NFL; the defense still has talent but is largely aging; and though there are some coveted pieces on the roster, the Steelers fail to spark any real flames.
Despite that, the Steelers are still somewhat valued in the AFC North (+510) and for the Super Bowl (+5000). The odds in the division represent a team trailing behind the Ravens and the Bengals, but the fact that the Steelers have similar or better odds than the Minnesota Vikings (+5000), Washington Commanders (+6000), and Indianapolis Colts (+6000) feels more like an ode to their ability to grind out results in the previous regime. McCarthy might be able to turn the team into a more than functional offense—something they weren’t last season with Rodgers under center—but that grit and grind ability that existed under Tomlin isn’t a guarantee. And with so many teams pushing forward this offseason, the Steelers have once again felt like a team standing still. It’s time that’s fully recognised. The Mike Tomlin days are behind the Steelers, for good or for bad.
Tennessee Titans – Robert Saleh
- Super Bowl Odds:
- AFC South Odds:
The Titans are the perfect example of why process often matters more than the result. Two years of back-to-back 3-14 seasons have landed the team with two top-five picks, including the number one pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, where the team drafted Miami quarterback Cam Ward. On the surface, Ward struggled in his first season in the league, completing 59.8% of his pass attempts for 3169 yards, 15 touchdowns, and seven interceptions. But there were a lot of positives to his game. Ward can sling the football and has multiple wow throws every game. The type that only a few quarterbacks can complete or even attempt. Highlights aren’t the making of a quarterback, but Ward’s big-time throws bode well for what he can be in the NFL.
The Titans’ potential success isn’t just down to Ward; new head coach Robert Saleh will play a significant role in shaping the present and future of the team. Saleh hasn’t got the credit he’s likely due in the NFL because he’s a second-time hire. But he turned the Jets’ defense into one of the better units in the league and was stung by Rodgers’ injury in the first game of the 2023 season. Even then, the Jets still finished the season 7-10. Saleh is the type of coach that players want to run through a wall for, especially on the defensive side of the ball. The Titans’ current Super Bowl odds of +13000 aren’t far off where the team is—a second-year quarterback with a new head coach—but they should arguably be in the same range as the Giants and Panthers. The team spent this offseason aggressively to put Ward and the defense in a better position, and while no one is suggesting they’ll be contending for the Super Bowl, Saleh should at least get a little more credit for his abilities as a coach.
Buffalo Bills – Joe Brady
- Super Bowl Odds:
- AFC East Odds:
The Buffalo Bills have been a team teetering on the hump for a while now. Often viewed as the bridesmaids to the Kansas City Chiefs, the Bills have been a regular-season monster over the last five years, but have failed to take the next step by finally competing in a Super Bowl. Last season felt different; the Chiefs, Ravens, and Bengals all missed the postseason, ultimately paving the way for the Bills to finally take care of business. They failed to do so, losing to the Denver Broncos in the Divisional Round, and the team made the tough decision to move on from former head coach Sean McDermott in the offseason, replacing him with Joe Brady—an internal hire as the team’s former offensive coordinator. A curious decision for a team that needed a potential shakeup after years of falling short.
The decision embeds the idea that the Bills do believe that as long as they have Allen, they have a chance. Brady brings the experience of running the offense—one that’s routinely been a top unit in the league—for the last three seasons, but it’ll be curious to see if he can step up and help push the Bills over the edge. As of now, the Bills have the second-best odds to win the Super Bowl in the NFL (+1000), which is curious. They have the best odds in the AFC, but they’re far from a perfect team. The defense will be a new-look unit with Jim Leonhard calling plays, and there’s an argument that the defense could regress. The offense will still stay strong with Brady and Allen, but the defense is a major question mark in a conference that has a lot of talent, especially at quarterback. Will the Bills be one of the top teams in the league? It’s more than likely, but Brady might be overvalued here right now because of the strength of the offense.
Baltimore Ravens – Jesse Minter
- Super Bowl Odds:
- AFC North Odds:
For the first time since 2008, the Baltimore Ravens enter the season with a new head coach. John Harbaugh departed the team after a disappointing 2025 campaign that finished with an 8-9 record and no postseason football, and the team replaced him with former Los Angeles Chargers’ defensive coordinator Jesse Minter—a move that’s created a lot of buzz. Minter has brought in an excellent young staff with him, and will hope to revitalise Lamar Jackson and the rest of the roster after a tough 2025. The expectation is that the Ravens will rebound and challenge for the division and the Super Bowl. That should be the case. Jackson is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, and if the offense is clicking, it can be a top-five unit. But by no means is it a guarantee.
Minter is viewed as one of the bright up-and-coming head coaches in the NFL, but there are still doubts in Baltimore. Offensive coordinator Declan Doyle could be a hit, but he’s the youngest coordinator in the league and has never called plays before. The offensive line is still a question mark, even with three new starters on the interior, and the defense needs a bounce-back season. The reality is the Ravens will likely be fine. There’s enough quality on the roster to circumvent a season similar to last. But they’re the current favorites in the AFC North (-112), ahead of a much-improved Bengals team, and they have the joint-second-best Super Bowl odds in the NFL. Going from not making the playoffs to winning the Super Bowl is a sizable jump, and Minter’s appointment could be a reason why the Ravens are maybe valued too highly—especially in the AFC.
Arizona Cardinals – Mike LaFleur
- Super Bowl Odds:
- NFC West Odds:
It’s not a shock to know that the Arizona Cardinals aren’t going to challenge for the Super Bowl in 2026. They’re on the ground floor of a major rebuild after moving on from former number one overall pick Kyler Murray and head coach Jonathan Gannon this offseason. The Cardinals had some fleeting moments of hope and success, but couldn’t string the pieces together. Now, they’re starting again with former Jets and Rams offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur as the team’s head coach while sticking with veteran quarterback Jacoby Brissett under center. The consensus is that the Cardinals will be in the running for the first overall pick in 2027, but right now they have +50000 odds to win the Super Bowl—by far the longest odds in the NFL. The hiring of Mike LaFleur, a first-time head coach in the NFL, could play a part in that.
LaFleur is best known for his time with the Jets, where the offense struggled with Zach Wilson under center, but any coordinator would struggle in that position. The Cardinals roster, by the betting odds, is being positioned as the worst in the league. But there’s a lot to like on the roster. Their quartet of offensive talent- Jeremiyah Love, Trey McBride, Marvin Harrison Jr., and Michael Wilson- can be one of the better cores in the NFC, and there’s more than enough intriguing talent on the defensive side of the ball, compared to a roster like the Miami Dolphins. The Cardinals being down in the basement in terms of Super Bowl odds isn’t out of line, but being so far behind every other team in the league that could struggle is surprising. There are worse teams out there heading into the 2026 season.
Atlanta Falcons – Kevin Stefanski
- Super Bowl Odds:
- NFC South Odds:
The Atlanta Falcons suffered the fate of an eighth losing season in a row in 2025. Despite the NFC South seemingly being up for grabs every year, the Falcons have struggled to break through the glass ceiling of their own ineptitude. That meant changes were on the way, again, in Atlanta. The team fired Raheem Morris after two seasons in charge and hired former Browns’ head coach and two-time Coach of the Year Kevin Stefanski to assume the role of the team’s head coach. Stefanski is a safety net as an offensive coach, and often turned poorly equipped offenses into functional units in his six seasons with the team. Now, Stefanski will aim to do the same in Atlanta. Stefanski has a crop of talented offensive players like Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts, but no quarterback to rally the team.
Familiar territory, and one the markets seem to factor into their odds for the Falcons to win the NFC South and the Super Bowl. The fact that the Falcons have, arguably, one of the worst quarterback situations in the NFL right now is a death knell. Tua Tagovailoa signed a one-year deal with the team in the offseason, but hasn’t played well in preseason, and former first-round pick Michael Penix Jr. has only just been cleared for team drills after suffering a torn ACL in 2025. The offense has talent, and the defense is improved, but murky waters at quarterback are a non-starter for this team. Stefanski’s reputation is rightly lifting the team, but they could be one of the worst teams in the NFL in 2026.
Photo Credit: REUTERS
