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Sunday’s NFL Divisional Round slate features a pair of games and combining prop bets from both Patriots-Texans and Rams-Bears, we’ve put together what BetMGM Sportsbook calls an SGP+ (an SGP that also includes markets from another game).
Click any odds below to place a bet. For more sportsbook promos, we highly recommend checking out the best sports betting sites, all of which offer same-game parlays for this weekend’s games.
Saturday Divisional Playoff Odds, Preview, Picks & Same-Game Parlay (+457 at BetMGM)
- Patriots-Texans Props: 1st Half Under 20.5 (-135)
- Rams-Bears Props: Blake Corum Rushing Yards Over
- Bears-Rams Props: Caleb Williams INT Over
Patriots vs. Texans Props: 1st Half Under 20.5 (-135 at BetMGM)
The angle I like here is the familiarity of the coaching staff, most notably Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels and Texans offensive coordinator Nick Caley. When McDaniels was the head coach in New England, Caley was an offensive assistant. He was eventually promoted to tight ends coach before becoming the Rams’ pass game coordinator, and then took his current gig in Houston.
Anytime there is a student-teacher dynamic, I typically favor the teacher. I can see McDaniels giving the Pats’ defense a blueprint for how to slow down a Texans offense that will likely be without star receiver Nico Collins due to a concussion. The Pats’ offense finished 4th percentile in EPA per play last week against the Chargers and got bailed out by its defense sacking Justin Herbert six times. It was their first time below the 50th percentile mark since Week 3. Maybe it was an outlier, but the Texans’ defense is arguably the best unit in the league. Points should be at a premium in this matchup, especially early.
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Rams vs. Bears Props: Blake Corum Rushing Yards Over
I expected Kyren Williams to be a bellcow for the Rams last week, but the workload was relatively even. Williams edged Corum in rushing attempts only slightly, 13 to 11. Williams also had a 63% snap count to Corum’s 37%, which was also a bit more balanced than what I expected. I was thinking it would be 80/20 Williams.
This week, I believe the matchup favors Corum. The Bears rank 27th in defending outside runs, and Corum has a significantly higher EPA per rush on outside runs compared to inside. The Rams rush outside at just the 28th-highest rate in the league but are 1st in EPA when doing so. Right guard Kevin Dotson could also return from injury this week. Dotson is the highest graded run blocker on the team per PFF. With Dotson back and an edge on the outside, look for Corum to be a big factor on the ground in what could be a sub-zero game in Chicago.
Rams vs. Bears Props: Caleb Williams Interceptions Over
Caleb Williams has 20 turnover-worthy throws this season but only nine interceptions to his name. He has been one of the most fortunate quarterbacks in the NFL when it comes to not being penalized for making inaccurate throws. The Rams play mostly zone coverage, about 80% of the time, which is one of the highest rates in the league. Williams has struggled against zone with just a 45% success rate. Six of the seven interceptions he threw during the regular season came against zone coverage. I believe the weather will also be a big factor in this game. We will see how both quarterbacks handle what will be a freezing night in Chicago.
Final Sunday NFL Divisional Same-Game Parlay (SGP) Prediction
These picks offer a combined +457 odds at BetMGM at the time of publication. Remember to wager responsibly on these plays given the volatility of same-game parlays.
Best of luck with your NFL bets in the playoffs!
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