NFL Week 1 Line Movements: Vikings Odds Increase vs. Packers

The first full Sunday of NFL football has arrived, and bettors have a smorgasbord of options on which to take a stake in across that day’s 13 games, along with a Monday night showdown between the Broncos and Chiefs. With so much interest in the first big slate of games of the new season and lines having been released months ago, it’s unsurprising there’s been plenty of action and corresponding movement over time.

Ahead of Sunday’s kickoffs, let’s dive into what games’ lines have seen the most movement since their initial rollout and what may be behind it:

Closing Lines for NFL Week 1

Team	Opponent	Opening Line	Closing Line	Movement
Packers	Vikings	Packers -1.5	Vikings -1.5	▲ 3.0 pts → Vikings
Bills	Texans	Texans -1.5	Bills -1.5	▲ 3.0 pts → Bills
Cardinals	Chargers	Cardinals +11.5	Cardinals +9.5	▲ 2.0 pts → Cardinals
Browns	Jaguars	Jaguars -7	Jaguars -8.5	▲ 1.5 pts → Jaguars
Jets	Titans	Jets +3	Jets +1.5	▲ 1.5 pts → Jets

Packers vs. Vikings ([Packers -1.5] > [Vikings -1.5])

This game is already one of the marquee matchups of the week, as the long-time NFC Central rivals do battle at U.S. Bank Stadium to open the season. It also marks the regular-season Vikings debut of Kyler Murray, who’s looking to reignite his career under noted offensive guru Kevin O’Connell. Murray beat out 2024 first-round pick J.J. McCarthy fairly easily for the starting job this summer, and he begins his quest for a redemption season armed with plenty of formidable weapons.

The Packers are coming into this game missing a highly important player apiece on either side of the ball, collectively helping explain this line movement. Micah Parsons’ absence due to a 2025 torn ACL has been fully expected, but Josh Jacobs’ Aug. 30 placement on the Commissioner’s Exempt List due to an offseason incident has helped spur the move towards Minnesota. The Pack will roll with MarShawn Lloyd and Chris Brooks as their two top backs to open the season, an unproven duo to say the least.

The public has progressively bet this number all the way over to the other side primarily due to Jacobs’ absence, although a pair of questionable tags for Packers starting offensive linemen and defensive linemen apiece is also tarnishing Green Bay’s outlook in a tough road matchup. As of Thursday night, a whopping 72% of the spread dollars are being placed on the Vikings, along with 58% of the bets.

Bills vs. Texans ([Texans -1.5] > [Bills -1.5])

After experiencing yet another postseason heartbreak in January, the Bills took some drastic action by cutting long-time head coach Sean McVay loose. Buffalo then made a headline-grabbing trade with the Bears for DJ Moore, affording Josh Allen the legitimate No. 1 receiver he lacked in 2025. Joe Brady, who’d served as the quarterbacks coach and then the offensive coordinator in Buffalo since 2022, is now the man donning the headset for the Bills, garnering a promotion that could prove critical considering his long-time rapport with Allen.

The Texans are once again fielding a C.J. Stroud-led offense, and they’re also in the familiar position of being short-handed at receiver. The loss of Jayden Higgins to a torn ACL in training camp robbed Stroud of his projected No. 2 receiver, and Tank Dell (knee) is on IR to open the season. David Montgomery is a key offseason addition and is expected to form a dynamic 1-2 punch with Woody Marks, but the duo will be running behind an 0-line missing starting RT Braden Smith (foot).

The Bills are at full health in terms of front-line players, and the line movement from narrow underdog to narrow favorite sees Buffalo drawing 52% of the bets and 52% of the dollars as of Thursday night when it comes to the spread. However, it’s worth noting Stroud is 5-2 as a home underdog in his career.

Cardinals vs. Chargers ([Cardinals +11.5] > [Cardinals +9.5])

The Cardinals have frequently been lumped with the likes of the Raiders, Jets and Dolphins this offseason as candidates for worst teams in the league this coming season, but the talent on the offensive side of the ball for Mike LaFleur’s squad is far from subpar. Jacoby Brissett, who offered plenty of starting-quality play last season, will once again be throwing to Marvin Harrison Jr., Michael Wilson and Trey McBride. Then, rookie third overall pick Jeremiyah Love has no shortage of upside, and veteran offseason add Tyler Allgeier may make for the ideal complementary back.

The biggest offseason addition for the Chargers may well have been new offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel, who ultimately hit a wall as the Dolphins’ head coach but is still highly regarded for his offensive mind. With a talent-laden offense spearheaded by Justin Herbert and well-stocked with the speed and quickness at the skill positions that McDaniel has thrived with previously, expectations are particularly high on that side of the ball for the Bolts.

The move of two points in Arizona’s favor is interesting considering the perceived disparity in talent between the teams and the home setting for Los Angeles. Adding further intrigue is the fact the number has moved despite 56% of bets and 76% of dollars still coming in on the Chargers in terms of the spread, a reverse line movement that indicates some sharp money has backed the Cardinals playing things a bit closer than the general public might expect.

Browns vs. Jaguars ([Jaguars -7] > [Jaguars -8.5])

The Browns started over yet again at head coach this offseason with the hiring of Todd Monken, as the long-suffering franchise looks to finally get the ship steered in the right direction again. Monken held an open competition between embattled veteran Deshaun Watson and Shedeur Sanders for the starting QB job that the former ultimately prevailed in. However, given Watson hasn’t played a regular-season game since Week 7 of the 2024 campaign due to multiple Achilles injuries and the defense has plenty of question marks, Cleveland’s outlook is far from bright.

The picture is diametrically opposite in Jacksonville, where Liam Coen enters his second season at the helm aiming to improve on last year’s stellar 13-4 mark. Trevor Lawrence appeared to truly click in Coen’s system down the stretch in 2025, and he has a host of familiar pass-catching weapons surrounding him. The ground attack now features second-year back Bhayshul Tuten in a key role following the offseason departure of Travis Etienne, while the defense is expected to remain in the top half of the league.

The public seems to be decidedly sour on Cleveland, especially after a generally uninspiring preseason. Jacksonville also boasted an NFL-best +15.8-point average scoring margin at home last season, making it unsurprising that 57% of the spread bets and 77% of the spread dollars have come in on Jacksonville and pushed the line up past the key number of 7 in the process.

Jets vs. Titans ([Jets +3] > [Jets +1.5])

After another forgettable season in 2025 in Aaron Glenn’s rookie campaign as head coach, the Jets entered the offseason with a bleak prognosis. Yet, the offseason was reasonably positive, considering the return of Geno Smith to the Big Apple, the somewhat surprising re-signing of Breece Hall, and the drafting of Kenyon Sadiq and David Bailey. There’s also cautious optimism surrounding a potential breakout for speedster Adonai Mitchell, who was acquired in a midseason trade with the Colts last fall.

Not much is expected from the Titans in Robert Saleh’s first season as head coach, but the offense is stocked with big-play threats. Cam Ward could take a notable step forward in Year 2 with the help of rookie fourth overall pick Carnell Tate, Calvin Ridley, Wan’Dale Robinson and Chimere Dike, to name just some of his skill-position assets. The productive Tony Pollard-Tyjae Spears backfield duo is also back, while the defense boasts a new pair of starting corners in Cor’Dale Flott and Alontae Taylor.

The line movement in favor of the Jets is reflected in some sharp money coming in on New York — Gang Green lays claim to only 44% of spread bets, 65% of the spread dollars, compared to a 56/35 split for Tennessee in that category.

How to Read Line Movement

• Sharp money: Bets from professional bettors with long-term winning records — can move a line even when it creates liability for the book.
• Reverse line movement: When a line moves opposite the majority of public bets, signaling sharp action on the other side.
• Steam move: A sudden, sharp line shift across multiple sportsbooks at once, usually triggered by heavy sharp action.
• Public betting percentage: The share of bets (not necessarily money) on each side — useful mainly in contrast with where the line actually moves.
• Key numbers: Point values (3 and 7 in the NFL especially) that a high share of games land on — a line crossing one matters more than the raw point total suggests.

Photo Credit: REUTERS