NFL Week 2 Line Movements: Seahawks Odds Decrease vs. Cardinals

After an exciting opening week, the second Sunday of the new season is already upon us. Week 2 is always interesting from a betting perspective, as there are inevitably perceptions that change significantly after Week 1 results, and that’s not even factoring any key injuries that stem from those season-opening contests. 

Ahead of Sunday’s kickoffs, let’s dive into what games’ lines have seen the most movement since their initial rollout and what may be behind it.

Closing Lines for NFL Week 2

Team	Opponent	Opening Line	Closing Line	Movement
Seahawks	Cardinals	Seahawks -10.5	Seahawks -4	▲ 6.5 pts → Cardinals
Panthers	Falcons	Falcons +1.5	Panthers -2.5	▲ 1.0 pts → Panthers
Packers	Jets	Packers -6.5	Packers -3.5	▲ 3.0 pts → Jets
Browns	Buccaneers	Buccaneers -5.5	Buccaneers -8.5	▲ 3.0 pts → Buccaneers
Dolphins	49ers	49ers -10.5	49ers -13.5	▲ 3.0 pts → 49ers

Seattle Seahawks vs. Arizona Cardinals (Seahawks -10.5 > Seahawks -4)

The biggest mover of the week involves the defending champions, who played their Week 1 game so long ago it almost feels like presaeson. The Seahawks opened the season on Sept. 9 against the Patriots in a Super Bowl rematch, and although Seattle managed to mount a successful spirited comeback, Mike Macdonald’s squad also lost starting QB Sam Darnold for at least Week 2 due to a glute injury. 

Darnold’s confirmed absence combined with a much better Week 1 performance than anticipated by the Cardinals in a surprising 26-14 road win over the Chargers have led to some major narrowing of what was initially a double-digit spread in favor of Seattle. As of Thursday night, the line is now just a half-point away from having come down a full seven points, and even though 93% of the moneyline dollars are still coming in on Seattle, the Cards are still pulling in 41% of spread dollars even with the drastically reduced line.

The latter stat is interesting when noting the Cards were actually one of the league’s worst teams against the spread at home last season, going 1-7 ATS with a -6.1 ATS +/- in that split.

Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons (Falcons +1.5 > Panthers -2.5)

The Panthers had an interesting Week 1 to say the least, one that legitimately included some significant highs and lows. Those could realistically be split by the two sides of the ball. Carolina’s offense, particularly Bryce Young and Jalen Coker, opened the season in encouraging fashion, with both players carrying over their late-season/postseason momentum into the new campaign. On the other hand, the Panthers defense was famously shredded by Ben Johnson’s Bears, with Chicago ultimately piling up 59 points.

The Falcons put up a good fight against the Steelers, considering they were on the road and facing Pittsburgh with their third-string QB, Cooper Rush. However, with the exception of Bijan Robinson, the offense unsurprisingly lacked plenty of cohesiveness, and it was a pick-six of Rush by T.J. Watt that proved the difference in the game. Nevertheless, Michael Penix has been able to practice without restrictions the first two days of Week 2 prep, teeing up the possibility of his season debut.

The Panthers’ big move from underdog to favorite could see some regression if Penix is indeed announced as the Falcons’ starter, but as of Thursday night, 76% of the spread dollars have come in on Carolina.

Green Bay Packers vs. New York Jets (Packers -6.5 > Packers -3.5)

This is third-biggest mover of the week is attached to an interesting interconference clash between two teams that remain hard to figure out after one game. The Packers got off to a fast start on the road against the Vikings last Sunday, but after knocking Minnesota starting QB Kyler Murray out of the game with a concussion, matters actually got worse for Green Bay in every sense. Ultimately, Carson Wentz and the Vikings defense were able to hand the Pack a 39-22 loss, which sullied Green Bay’s image significantly heading into this Week 2 matchup. 

The Jets did indeed commemorate the return of Geno Smith to the franchise with a Week 1 win, but there’s a pretty sizeable asterisk next to that victory since it came over the Titans. New York didn’t have an especially impressive showing, either, but for the purposes of this field goal’s worth of line movement, it’s worth noting Smith did look like a much more competent field general than those the Jets typically rolled out last season, and he displayed strong chemistry with top wideouts Garrett Wilson and Adonai Mitchell.

Some sharp money appears to be playing a noteworthy role in the moving line this week, as 47% of the spread dollars are coming in on New York, despite the Jets being the subject of just 37% of the spread bets. 

Cleveland Browns vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Buccaneers -5.5 > Buccaneers -8.5)

The Browns’ game makes the list of top five movers for the second time in as many weeks to open the season. Cleveland gets there this week largely by virtue of the fact Todd Monken’s squad turned in about as abysmal a performance as was expected in Week 1 against the Jaguars. A garbage-time Deshaun Watson touchdown pass to Denzel Boston dressed up the score slightly, but the Browns were still thumped by a 34-10 score. 

The Buccaneers were also in the loss column by the end of their Week 1 matchup against the Bengals, although Tampa Bay was markedly more competitive in their 33-27 defeat despite Baker Mayfield’s three lost fumbles. However, given the loss was close, came on the road, and was against a respected opponent, Tampa Bay’s public betting image hasn’t suffered much. The fact they’re now going into their home opener against a clearly inferior team, and are now getting Jalen McMillan back after he missed Week 1, only strengthens their advantage further. 

Tampa Bay is a bettor’s darling for this game, as a whopping 98% of the moneyline dollars and 92% of the spread dollars are coming in on the Bucs.

Miami Dolphins vs. San Francisco 49ers (49ers -10.5 > 49ers -13.5)

The fact the Dolphins suffered a Week 1 loss wasn’t entirely surprising, even if the opposing Raiders are also expected to be one of the league’s basement-dwellers this season. However, Miami’s offense looked like it does indeed have a long way to go to consistent respectability, as it struggled to 259 total yards on a modest 13 first downs in the 27-13 loss. Malik Willis fought for seemingly every yard he helped muster, and he still took five sacks and threw a pick. 

Conversely, the 49ers could hardly have put together a more impressive and confidence-building Week 1 effort. San Francisco shockingly manhandled the ultra-hyped Rams in Melbourne, Australia, turning in a dominant performance on both sides of the ball on the way to a 379-290 advantage in total yards. Brock Purdy looked to be clicking on all cylinders with new No. 1 receiver Mike Evans, and even though the loss of highly promising rookie De’Zhaun Stribling to an ankle injury stings, it would hardly seem to matter in this Week 2 home opener.

It’s no surprise the betting public sees the Dolphins as being completely outclassed in this spot, and even with the progressive expansion of the line, San Fran is still pulling down 73%/71% of the spread bets/dollars, along with 99% of the moneyline wagers.

How to Read Line Movement

• Sharp money: Bets from professional bettors with long-term winning records — can move a line even when it creates liability for the book.
• Reverse line movement: When a line moves opposite the majority of public bets, signaling sharp action on the other side.
• Steam move: A sudden, sharp line shift across multiple sportsbooks at once, usually triggered by heavy sharp action.
• Public betting percentage: The share of bets (not necessarily money) on each side — useful mainly in contrast with where the line actually moves.
• Key numbers: Point values (3 and 7 in the NFL especially) that a high share of games land on — a line crossing one matters more than the raw point total suggests.

Photo Credit: REUTERS