Share 
Best Bet: U45.5 (-110) at DraftKings
Score Prediction: Ohio State 23, Iowa 22
The Pick: Ohio State 23, Iowa 22
We’re taking the Under by process of elimination, playing into various Under data points with the ATS having no traction to get behind.
Game Betting Analysis
This is a very difficult game to predict when looking at the data, but we’ll start with the Under as that will be the pick for this one. Out of the gate, the Over has hit in three of four meetings, while Ohio State is also 3-1 to the Over this season. However, Iowa is 1-3 to the Under this season while also hitting the Under in its last nine games when playing in the state of Iowa as the underdog. Iowa is 0-5 to the Under when playing as a home underdog, while Ohio State is actually 0-5 to the Under in its last five road games as a favorite, and 0-6 to the Under in its last six road games overall. Both Ohio State and Iowa entering with 3-1 ATS marks this season. Iowa has covered five of six games as the underdog, while Ohio State has covered seven of eight road games as a favorite. We’re handcuffed to the Under.
Ohio State-Iowa Odds (Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under)
Deciding Factor: Iowa’s Deep Rushing Attack vs. Ohio State’s Shaky Run Defense
Ohio State enters 3-1 and ranked No. 6 off a 42-19 win over Illinois, but that game exposed a real crack up front, as the Buckeyes allowed 199 rushing yards to the Illini, including 113 to running back Aidan Laughtery alone. Head coach Ryan Day admitted afterward that the defense needs to “run angrier” and get to the second level faster, an issue that becomes a lot more urgent against a Hawkeyes offense built entirely around pounding the ball.
Iowa brings one of the most dangerous and deep ground games in the country into this one, with four different backs already topping 100 rushing yards in a game this season, Kamari Moulton (284 yards, 2 TDs), Braden Jackson (168), Xavier Williams (167), and Nathan McNeil (128), and the Hawkeyes rank 5th in the FBS at 6.53 yards per carry. Pair that with a defense that’s allowing just 8 points per game, the best mark in the nation, and one that just held on to upset Michigan 20-19 on the road, and Iowa arrives at 4-0 with exactly the formula to expose Ohio State’s run-defense issue while its own unit controls the scoreboard.
Game Information
- Date: Saturday, October 3, 2026
- Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
- Network: CBS, Paramount+
- Venue: Kinnick Stadium – 41.3 ppg; 1-2 O/U
Best Bets for College Football Week 5
- Under 45.5 (-110)
Key Players
Ohio State Buckeyes
- QB, Julian Sayin — Last Game: 27/36, 367 yards, 4 TD
- WR, Jeremiah Smith — Last Game: 12 catches, 217 yards, 4 TD
Iowa Hawkeyes
- QB, Hank Brown— Last Game: 21/35, 227 yards, 2 TD
- RB, Kamari Moulton — Last Game: 13 carries, 44 yards
Photo Credit: REUTERS
