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Best Bet: Under 49.5 (-100) at DraftKings
Best Bet: Ohio State ML
Score Prediction: Ohio State 28, Texas 20
The Pick: Ohio State 28, Texas 20
Our pick is the Under 49.5 total points at -110 odds with recent head-to-head data along with Ohio State’s 2025 defense allowing 16 points or less to most opponents.
Game Betting Analysis
Both meetings in 2025 (different seasons) saw the Under hit and Ohio State cover the spread while winning outright. Ohio State is the live underdog here, given plus-money to win and good value to test with a 17-0 outright run over its last 17 games played in September. Texas has also failed to cover the spread in its last six games when facing a Top 10 AP ranked school while playing as one too. However, two things are different from the two games in 2025, with Ohio State now the road team along with now playing as the underdog. The Under has hit in five straight road games for Ohio State, while the Buckeyes actually held opponents to 16 points or less in 13 of 14 games, the one game being the Miami-Florida loss where they allowed 24. Ohio State only allowed 21 total points to Texas in two total games, so we’ll lean Under for this tricky game.
Ohio State-Texas Odds (Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under)
Deciding Factor: Arch Manning vs. Ohio State Defensive Unit
With just 21 total points in last year’s two meetings, expect the Texas offense to get going early at home. However, Manning completed just 57% of his passes in his attempt at beating Ohio State when he got the start in the second meeting as Quinn Ewers departed to the NFL. Manning wasn’t great, 170 yards with a TD and an INT. He has plenty of weapons around him in Ryan Wingo Jr., Hollywood Smothers and early Heisman candidate Cam Coleman. He will have to play well against a defense that has allowed 16 points or less in 13 of 14 games. At home, Manning and the offense will need to break through the Buckeyes’ defense on more than a handful of occasions to get the win here.
Game Information
- Date: Saturday, September 12, 2026
- Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Network: ABC
- Venue: Darrel K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium – 66 ppg; 1-0 O/U
Best Bets for College Football Week 2
- Ohio State ML (+102)
- Under 49.5 (-110)
Key Players
Ohio State Buckeyes
- QB, Julian Sayin — Last Game: 21/25, 320 yards, 3 TD
- WR, Jeremiah Smith — Last Game: 8 catches, 151 yards, 2 TD
Texas Longhorns
- QB, Arch Manning— Last Game: 20/27, 305 yards, 4 TD, INT
- WR, Cam Coleman — Last Game: 3 catches, 70 yards, 2 TD
