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Best Bet: UF -3.5 (-110) at Hard Rock Bet
Score Prediction: Florida 32, Ole Miss 28
The Pick: Florida 32, Ole Miss 28
We’ll take Florida’s ATS here, with low conviction, based on head-to-head trends along with Florida home games against Top 10 teams.
Game Betting Analysis
After going through the data, we’re siding with Florida as a huge surprise. Ole Miss impressed with it’s home win over LSU, but we’ll buy into the hangover in a hostile environment against a solid duo in Aaron Philo and Jadan Baugh – the latter quietly making an early case for the Heisman Trophy. Let’s look at the facts, though, and the data shows Florida has covered the spread in its last four meetings against Ole Miss while winning three of those outright. Also, the Gators have covered the spread in seven of eight home games when facing a Top 10 AP ranked school. The surprise for us taking Florida is tamed conviction with most of Florida’s ATS data coming from an underdog role. Buyer beware, they are favorites on Saturday.
Ole Miss-Florida Odds (Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under)
Deciding Factor: Florida’s Run Game vs. Ole Miss’s Big-Play Passing
Florida is 3-0 for the first time since 2019, hanging 44-plus points every game behind RB Jadan Baugh, who leads the SEC with 458 rushing yards and 8 touchdowns on 8.5 yards per carry — four straight 100-yard games, the first Gator to do that since Fred Taylor in 1997. QB Aaron Philo has been efficient (68%) but threw his first pick of the season against Auburn and is just three starts into his career. Ole Miss counters with Trinidad Chambliss, who leads the SEC with 924 passing yards and 7 touchdowns and torched LSU for 363 yards and three total scores last time out. If Baugh keeps controlling tempo, Florida dictates against a defense that has to load the box.
With the total at 60.5, this looks like a shootout, and it’s whichever defense finds one stop — not the possession battle — that likely decides it. Florida’s D let up 39 to Auburn and hasn’t faced an offense with Chambliss’s ability to extend plays and hit explosives. Ole Miss has to slow Baugh without selling out against the run and opening up Philo’s play-action shots. One empty possession in the fourth quarter probably decides this.
Game Information
- Date: Saturday, September 26, 2026
- Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
- Network: ABC
- Venue: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium – 71 ppg; 1-1 O/U
Best Bets for College Football Week 4
- Florida -3.5 (-110)
Key Players
Ole Miss Rebels
- QB, Trinidad Chambliss — Last Game: 33/48, 363 yards, 2 TD, INT; rushing TD
- WR, Deuce Alexander — Last Game: 7 catches, 60 yards, TD
Florida Gators
- QB, Aaron Philo— Last Game: 15/22, 204 yards, TD, INT
- RB, Jadan Baugh — Last Game: 26 carries, 162 yards, 3 TD
Photo Credit: REUTERS
