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The PGA TOUR is back to begin the new 2025-2026 season. The first stop of the Fall Swing brings us up to Silverado Resort & Spa in Napa Valley, California for the Procore Championship.
Find longer golf odds at the best PGA TOUR betting sites to increase your potential Procore Championship payouts. Ryder Cup stars Scottie Scheffler, Justin Thomas, and Patrick Cantlay are the headlining favorites in the first event of the new season.
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Procore Championship Introduction
It is good to be back in the swing of things on the PGA TOUR, with the shortest offseason in sports behind us already. Two weeks removed from Tommy Fleetwood’s breakthrough victory at East Lake, the new fall season will officially begin in Napa Valley, California for the Procore Championship at Silverado Resort & Spa.
Fall is a golden time of year for sports, with NFL, College Football, and MLB all in full swing. With time being precious for all of us, the PGA TOUR previews will be kept a bit more succinct during the fall season, prioritizing all the need-to-know analysis of the course, course history, and key stats for each event.
For the task at hand this week at Silverado Resort & Spa, there are many different avenues we have seen players go to attack this course. However, a consistent through line of strong wedge play inside 150 yards, Par-5 scoring, and comfort level putting on California Poa greens has proven a consistent formula over the years. Now let’s get into the key facts and info about Silverado Resort & Spa for the 2025 Procore Championship.
The Field At A Glance
For the first time in over a month, we’ll see a full field of 156 players teeing it up in Napa. Unique to this year’s Procore Championship, however, we’ll see a concerted effort from the USA Ryder Cup team to use this as a team-building trip. 11 of the OWGR top-25 players will tee it up this week. That includes 10 of the 12 players from the USA Ryder Cup team. Xander Schauffele is the only PGA TOUR player from the USA Ryder Cup team who will not be playing this week, presumably resting up from a lingering injury that hampered the second half of his 2025 season. Bryson DeChambeau was eager to play, however did not receive an exemption to play in a PGA TOUR event as a LIV Golfer. Given that the Fall Swing now exists to give opportunity for those outside the top-70 of the prior season to earn their status for the upcoming year, it’s for the best that Bryson did not take the spot of someone else who truly needs the opportunity.
Amongst the Ryder Cup elites, Scottie Scheffler headlines as the favorite in his Procore Championship debut. Justin Thomas, Patrick Cantlay, and Russell Henley join him as the favorites this week. Looking beyond the Ryder Cuppers, the top contenders who are here by their own choice include Maverick McNealy, Akshay Bhatia, and Max Greyserman.
Patton Kizzire returns to defend after his surprising 5-stroke victory in 2024. In addition, Max Homa, Sahith Theegala, Cameron Champ, and Emiliano Grillo represent the other past champions in the field this week.
Introduction To Silverado Resort & Spa
Silverado Resort & Spa will host this PGA TOUR event for the 19th consecutive year since its inception on the schedule in 2007. The event previously known as the Safeway Open switched sponsors to Fortinet in 2023, which has now rebranded to Procore.
At this venue, we have seen players who either have plus-distance or elite driving accuracy separate on this 7,123-yard par-72. With four scorable par-5s, Par-5 Scoring has also proven to be a strong indicator of success leading into the Procore Championship.
Silverado Resort & Spa does not share a ton in common with other California venues like Riviera CC or Torrey Pines, but Max Homa and Sahith Theegala’s recent success across the California swing would suggest that familiarity with California Poa greens is a nice luxury to have.
With a winning score traditionally falling between -15 to -19, I’m looking for top ball-strikers with a proven history of birdie-making on easier courses, particularly those with California Poa greens.
Event History & Course Comps
It’s an eclectic cast of players who have found repeated success at Silverado Resort, primarily favoring veteran plodders. The top 10 in Course History include Justin Thomas, Sahith Theegala, Matt Kuchar, Emiliano Grillo, Brandt Snedeker, Greyson Sigg, Tom Hoge, Patrick Fishburn, Chez Reavie, and Patton Kizzire.
Course Comps
There are not many short and tight golf courses on the PGA TOUR, which still reward distance and deprioritize the importance of the first tee shot. TPC Twin Cities, TPC San Antonio, Colonial CC, Waialae CC, and Detroit Golf Club are the courses that stand out to me as the best examples of comp courses where players can gain on the field by hitting driver aggressively, despite not being prohibitively long. Cameron Champ, Emiliano Grillo, and Brendan Steele are examples of players who have taken this approach to win at both Silverado and at least one of these comp courses.
From a short-game perspective, it’s also a good week to include mixed-condition modeling of putting performance on California Poa courses like Riviera CC, Torrey Pines, and Pebble Beach GL.
Combine performance across this list and the top-10 players in Comp Course History here are Russell Henley, Collin Morikawa, Justin Thomas, Akshay Bhatia, J.J. Spaun, Scottie Scheffler, Eric Cole, Sam Burns, Emiliano Grillo, and Patrick Fishburn.
Silverado Resort & Spa Course Specs
- Yards: 7,123
- Par: 72 (4x 3’s / 10x 4’s / 4x 5’s)
- Greens: Poa + Bent blend
- Architect: Robert Trent Jones & Johnny Miller
- Comp Courses: TPC Twin Cities, Colonial CC, Riviera CC, Torrey Pines, Detroit GC, Waialae CC, Pebble Beach, St. George’s G&CC, TPC San Antonio
- Historical Cutline: -2
Key Stats To Consider Before Betting PGA Tour Golf Odds This Week
- SG: APP
- SG: ARG / Scrambling Gained
- Par 5 Scoring / P5: 550-600
- Prox: 75-150
- Driving Distance
- P4: 400-450
- Birdies or Better Gained
- SG: Putting (L36, Poa)
- Course + Comp Course History
In the spirit of brevity for the fall swing, I’ll forego the usual deep dive per individual key stat category and dive straight into the ideal combo stats I’m eying for players best suited to attack Silverado Resort & Spa. That optimal mix should include SG: Ball Striking, Good Drives Gained, Prox: 75-125, Par-5 Scoring, Comp Course History, and SG: P (L36, Poa). Just eight players rank above average in each stat category: Russell Henley, Sam Burns, J.J. Spaun, Patrick Cantlay, Akshay Bhatia, Cameron Young, Collin Morikawa, and Kevin Roy.
Correlations
Looking at the correlation charts this week for Silverado Resort, it’s Greens In Regulation and Par-4: 450-500 which fall outside the top 10 in correlation compared to the TOUR average. SG: OTT also takes a notably steep dip in importance, furthering the narrative that this is a bona fide second-shot course where players who are extremely accurate or extremely long off the tee can both find success.
The stats that make the largest increase in importance at Silverado Resort include SG: ARG and Scrambling Gained, considering the high percentage of approaches from outside the fairway and tricky greens complexes.
There are eight players in the field who rank above average in each of the above 10 key stat categories: Sam Burns, J.J. Spaun, Patrick Cantlay, Akshay Bhatia, Cameron Young, Kevin Roy, Martin Laird, and Paul Peterson.
Player Spotlight: J.J. Spaun ()
A formula of top preceding form, longstanding California ties, and proven prior history at Silverado Resort has continued to pay dividends at the Procore Championship. Look no further than Sahith Theegala and Max Homa’s wins over the last four years here as evidence.
Form is a fleeting thing to quantify in the first event of the new season, but with golf’s comically short 2-week off-season, I’m not discounting the encouraging late summer run we saw from Spaun to close out his season. He closed out the year with a win at the U.S. Open and a playoff loss at the FedEx St. Jude Championship over his last seven starts to secure a spot on the USA Ryder Cup team.
The Los Angeles native should welcome this return to California after a sustained stretch on the East Coast to close out the 2025 season. Spaun was likely to be in the field this week, absent of the Ryder Cup team building push, as he’s played in this event in each of the last nine years. He’s finished top-11 twice since 2021, and will return to Silverado in the midst of the best form of his career.
The form, course history, and California narrative are all on Spaun’s side this week, and with a keen familiarity with this course, Spaun may be the most motivated of any of the USA Ryder Cup bunch to contend this week.
2025 Procore Championship Odds: DFS Player Pool
With all the course-fit profiles in mind, I’m leaning early toward the below player pool. Naturally, I’m looking their way in the 2025 Procore Championship odds as well. I’ve broken the list down by projected pricing/odds tier for DraftKings and Underdog Fantasy golf drafts.
Model Breakdown
In my model, I’m emphasizing SG: APP, Comp Course History, Birdies or Better Gained, and Prox: 100-150, followed by a more balanced mix of SG: Ball Striking, Good Drives Gained, SG: P (L36, Poa), Par-5 Scoring, P4: 400-450, and SG: ARG.
Model Favorites
Unfortunately for the mid-tier players on TOUR for which the Fall Swing is now intended, Scottie Scheffler has joined the field to crash their party, and as such, has claimed the No. 1 spot in my model. Scheffler would almost assuredly not be here if not for the “team building” mandate being pushed by USA Ryder Cup captain Keegan Bradley. While the stakes of this tournament are very low, Scheffler is a competitor, and I expect him to come to Napa looking to add to his tally of PGA TOUR wins.
After Scheffler, the rest of my model’s top 10 features Russell Henley, Sam Burns, J.J. Spaun, Patrick Cantlay, Emiliano Grillo, Akshay Bhatia, Ben Griffin, Andrew Putnam, and Cameron Young.
When Procore Championship odds open, I’ll be looking to construct a fairly condensed card, with the Team USA Ryder Cuppers soaking up a considerably higher share of win equity amongst the favorites than we’re used to seeing at this event. As of now, I’m eying J.J. Spaun, Akshay Bhatia, and Emiliano Grillo as initial leans when the odds release on Monday. Check back in later this week for more updates, and best of luck navigating the PGA TOUR golf odds for the 2025 Procore Championship!
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