Share 
Best Bet: O6.5 (-120) at DraftKings
Score Prediction: Yankees 5, Red Sox 2
The Pick: Yankees 5, Red Sox 2
We’ll stick with the Over again, hitting in Game 1 as we carry over similar data into Game 2.
Game Betting Analysis
We hit on both the Over and the Boston run total going Under in Game 1, so we’ll stick with the Over here which has hit in now 11 straight games when facing the AL at night along with three in a row against Boston. The Red Sox have yet to score over two runs in four of the last five meetings. There is also some value in the run line for New York, now hitting in three straight games against Boston with MLB’s fourth-best ATS record at 88-74. The conviction lies heavy in the total still, so we’ll stic with the game total and drop the Boston team total for Game 2.
MLB Game Trends & Betting Data
Red Sox vs. Yankees Odds (Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under)
Deciding Factor: Sonny Gray’s Season-Saving Start vs. Max Fried’s Mastery Over Boston
Down 0-1 in the best-of-three — and with teams that grab that first game winning the series 88% of the time — Boston turns to Sonny Gray, who’s quietly having a career year at 36 in his first season in a Red Sox uniform (2.72 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 20 quality starts). He’ll need it: Roman Anthony’s status atop the lineup is in question after he left Game 1 with right wrist discomfort, and after Monday’s bullpen meltdown, whoever Boston turns to behind Gray is as much a storyline as the start itself.
Standing across from him is Max Fried, who has flat-out owned this Boston lineup — one run allowed over 11.2 innings against the Red Sox this season, including an eight-inning shutout at Fenway in April, and a 1.93 career ERA versus them. Aaron Judge is still out rehabbing a calf strain, so New York keeps leaning on the depth that carried Game 1, and a Fried gem tonight would leave Boston needing a still-unproven Garrett Crochet — unused since late April — to save its season in a Game 3.
Game Information
- Date: Wednesday, September 30, 2026
- Kickoff: 8:00 p.m. ET
- Network: NBC
- Venue: Yankee Stadium – 8.8 runs per game; 42-36-3 O/U
- Series Score: Yankees 1-0
Key Players
Boston Red Sox
- Roman Anthony — Last Game: 0/2
- Ceddanne Rafaela — Last Game: 0/3
New York Yankees
- Cody Bellinger — Last Game: 1/4
- Ben Rice — Last Game: 4/5, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 2 R, 2B
Photo Credit: REUTERS
