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Best Bet: Rybakina ML (+115), Over 22.5 (-110)
Match Prediction: Rybakina in 3 Sets (7-6, 3-6, 7-5)
The Pick: Rybakina in 3 Sets
We’re going with the World No. 1 underdog, along with the Over. Rybakina has covered the spread in five straight finals vs. Sabalenka, also going Over in three straight Grand Slam meetings.
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Match Betting Analysis
There’s a lot to digest here, let’s start simple – the head-to-head. Rybakina has won the 1S in six straight finals against Sabalenka, and as stated above, has covered five straight finals against her. Speaking of sets stats, Sabalenka has won at least one set in a remarkable 127 of 128 Grand Slam matches. With these stats alone, we’ll take the Over. Also stated above, the Over has hit in the last three Grand Slam meetings between both players. Rybakina has also seen three straight Grand Slam finals enter a third set. With Rybakina’s ATS trends as well, the value on her moneyline is well worth the play at +115. Our setback there, however, is Rybakina’s 2-4 outright record in six matches as an underdog this season.
Sabalenka-Rybakina Odds (Moneyline, Game Spread, Total Games)
* Odds subject to change
Moneyline
| Player | Moneyline |
|---|---|
| Aryna Sabalenka | -145 |
| Elena Rybakina | +120 |
Game Spread
| Player | Game Spread |
|---|---|
| Sabalenka -1.5 | -120 |
| Rybakina +1.5 | -120 |
Total Games
| Total Games | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 22.5 | -140 |
| Under 22.5 | -105 |
Sabalenka is the clear favorite here (-145 ML, -1.5 games), with the total sitting at 22.5 games.
Deciding Factor: Rybakina’s First Serve, Mental State Matchup
It’s no secret that Rybakina’s game is built on her first serve, so for her to pull off the upset, her first serve must be above 57% minimum (based off data). If it is, she’s more than halfway home for consolidating her world No. 1 ranking and third major victory. For Sabalenka, her mental state will be the deciding factor as she tends to panic in negative situations. Of the two, the mental edge also goes to Rybakina who comes in waves – but currently that wave is a low tide. If Rybakina can hold her nerves in tight moments, which she has already proven this tournament, she will have a huge edge in this meeting. With that said, the first serve percentage must come first.
Match Information
- Date: Saturday, September 12, 2026
- Start time: 4:00 p.m. ET
- Network: ESPN
- Venue: Arthur Ashe Stadium at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center
- Format: Best-of-3 sets
Best Bets for the US Open
Head-to-Head & Key Stats
- Sabalenka leads the last 5 head-to-head at 3-2
- Rybakina is 3-1 ATS last 4 against Sabalenka
Sabalenka’s Road to the Final
 |
World Ranking No. 2 |
W/L 46-8 (1st) |
ATS 19-30-5 (195th) |
O/U 28-26 (118th) |
1st Set 46-8 |
2nd Set 47-7 |
| Round | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|
| R1 | Camila Osorio | 6-2, 6-4 |
| R2 | Polina Iatcenko (Q) | 6-1, 6-1 |
| R3 | Kamilla Rakhimova | 6-3, 6-4 |
| R4 | Taylor Townsend | 6-4, 6-3 |
| QF | Linda Noskova (6) | 7-6(1), 3-6, 7-6(7) |
| SF | Jessica Pegula (3) | 7-5, 6-2 |
Rybakina’s Road to the Final
 |
World Ranking No. 1 |
W/L 48-13 (2nd) |
ATS 29-27-2 (112th) |
O/U 29-28-1 (124th) |
1st Set 40-18 |
2nd Set 45-13 |
| Round | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|
| R1 | Thea Frodin (WC) | 6-3, 6-2 |
| R2 | Jessica Bouzas Maneiro | 6-2, 6-4 |
| R3 | Yuliia Starodubtseva | 7-6(6), 6-3 |
| R4 | Naomi Osaka (13) | 6-1, 6-4 |
| QF | Zheng Qinwen (Q) | 3-6, 6-1, 6-4 |
| SF | Coco Gauff (4) | 3-6, 6-4, 6-4 |
Photo Credit: REUTERS
