San Antonio Spurs Open as 2026 NBA Finals Favorites Against New York Knicks
The Spurs shocked the NBA universe with a 111-103 win over the Thunder on the road in Game 7, ending the defending champion’s quest for back-to-back titles with a late-series run that also included a pair of sizable blowouts on San Antonio’s home floor. Victor Wembanyama and co. will head back to Frost Bank Center to host the New York Knicks beginning Wednesday night, a team they went 1-2 against in the regular season — a sample that includes New York’s NBA Cup Championship victory — but that they’re early -205 series favorites over in the Finals.
Meanwhile, the Knicks are entering their first Finals since 1999 very well-rested for a second straight series. New York surprisingly disposed of the Cleveland Cavaliers in four games in the Eastern Conference Finals, their second straight sweep in the postseason after also having eliminated the Philadelphia 76ers in four games during the semifinal round. The Knicks will have had eight full days of rest since their most recent time on the floor by the time Game 1 tips off Wednesday, an intriguing advantage that could give them a leg up in the later stages of the series’ opening salvo.
2026 NBA Finals Spurs vs. Knicks Opening Series Odds
As already alluded to, the Spurs, which have home-floor advantage, are -205 favorites in the opening series line.
The shorted odds for series score bets are attached to a seven-game series that the Spurs prevail in, a scenario that carries +320 odds. The second-shortest odds are associated with a much more convincing San Antonio win, one that happens over five games (+340). The longest odds, predictably, are for a Knicks sweep, which has opened with a price of +2000.
In terms of the series spread, the longest odds are attached to a Knicks -2.5 games line, which carries a price of +650, with the second longest being the +300 associated with the Knicks -1.5 games line. In terms of a line that involves the Spurs prevailing but still carries odds with plus money, that would be Spurs -1.5, which can currently be secured at a price of +105. Meanwhile, the shortest odds on a line where the Knicks are getting some games to work with are the -125 figure that belongs to Knicks +1.5.
Exact games bets for the series see a 7-game series carrying the shortest odds at +200. A 6-game series is considered only slightly less probable at +225, while a 5-game Finals can be bet on at +275 odds. A sweep by either side is naturally considered the longest-shot bet, with the odds on that bet checking in at +500.
The most recent time the Finals ended in a sweep was in 2018, when the Warriors trampled the Cavaliers. The last seven-game Finals occurred just last June after a nine-year drought, when the Thunder edged the Pacers.
2026 NBA Finals Spurs vs. Knicks Opening Game 1 Odds
The Spurs are -186 moneyline favorites for Game 1 at Frost Bank Center. While San Antonio did go just 1-2 straight up against the Knicks in the regular season, the Spurs were 32-8 straight up at home in the regular season and 7-2 to date in the postseason. San Antonio’s most recent pair of home wins also bear mentioning, considering they came by an average 24.0 points over the Thunder. The Knicks have been impressive on the road as well this postseason after forging a 22-19 mark in away games in the regular season, going 6-0 after losing their first away contest in the first round to the Hawks.
The Spurs are up to -5.5-point favorites as of early Sunday after opening at -4.5. San Antonio is 26-20-1 against the spread as a home favorite since the start of the regular season, a sample in which they have a narrow ATS +/- of +1.1 points. The Spurs are also 13-6 ATS in games with a rest disadvantage, and a Western Conference-best 12-6 versus the number in the postseason. Meanwhile, the Knicks are 8-8 ATS as a road underdog since the start of the season with an ATS +/- of +4.1 points, 12-9 ATS in games with a rest edge and an NBA-best 11-3 against the number in the postseason.
The projected total for Game 1 is set at 217.5 points. The three games between the teams during the regular season (including the NBA Cup Championship) finished with totals of 237, 266 and 203 points. The Over is 21-28 in the Spurs’ home games since the start of the season, including 19-28 in their games as a home favorite. Meanwhile, it carries a 22-26 record in the Knicks’ away games, including a 5-11 mark in the Knicks’ games as a road underdog. However, it’s been a different story for both teams in the postseason — 11 of the Spurs’ 18 playoff contests have seen the Over cash, and the same has been true in eight of the Knicks’ 14 postseason contests.
2026 NBA Finals MVP Opening Odds
Favorites
Victor Wembanyama, Spurs:
Wembanyama has opened as the odds-on favorite for Finals MVP, a development that’s fully expected given the 2023 first overall pick’s body of work in both the regular season and postseason. Wemby averaged a career-high 25.0 points (on career-best 51.2% shooting) and 11.5 rebounds across 64 regular-season games, complementing those figures with 3.1 assists, 3.1 blocks and 1.0 steals.
Then, even with a pair of outlier 12-minute outings in the postseason, he’s put up 23.2 points, 10.8 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 3.5 blocks and 1.1 steals over 17 games. He was even better in his two non-NBA Cup regular-season games against the Knicks, averaging 28.0 points, 13.0 rebounds, 1.5 assists and 2.5 blocks.
Jalen Brunson, Knicks:
Brunson is unsurprisingly the Knick highest on the MVP futures leaderboard, in line with his role as his team’s most potent weapon alongside Karl-Anthony Towns. Brunson averaged 26.0 points, 6.8 assists and 3.3 rebounds across 35.0 minutes per contest over 74 regular-season games. The veteran guard has averaged 26.9 points, 6.6 assists and 2.8 rebounds while shooting 48.6 percent over New York’s 14-game postseason sample to date.
He put up similar numbers against the Spurs in the two non-NBA Cup regular-season meetings, furnishing 26.5 points, 7.5 assists, 4.0 rebounds and 1.0 steals over 34.0 minutes per contest while shooting 47.4% from three-point range. He also had a highly impressive performance in the NBA Cup Championship, delivering 25 points, eight assists, four rebounds and one block.
Sleepers
Stephon Castle, Spurs:
Castle has put together an impressive postseason after setting new career highs across the stat sheet in the regular season. The 2024 fourth overall pick has then kicked it up a notch in the postseason, as he went into Saturday’s Game 7 with 19.4 points, 6.7 assists, 4.9 rebounds and 1.0 steals over 33.4 minutes per contest before adding 16 points, six rebounds, six assists and one steal in the series-clinching victory. Castle already has a pair of 32+- point outings and double-doubles in the postseason, so he has the upside to make a longshot case for MVP.
Mikal Bridges, Knicks:
Bridges opened the postseason in lackluster fashion. However, he flipped the switch in the decisive Game 6 of the first-round win over the Hawks and never looked back, averaging 18.7 points, 4.0 rebounds, 3.1 assists and 1.4 steals while shooting an outstanding 62.8% over 34.2 minutes across the subsequent nine games. Given his ability to make an impact across the board, his scalding hot hand from the field and the fact he shot 57.7%, including 50.0% from behind the arc, in two non-NBA Cup regular-season games against the Spurs, Bridges could serve as a critical contributor.
Photo Credit: AP/Tony Gutierrez
