Should You Bet on the Dallas Stars to win the 2026 Stanley Cup?

Once considered one of the top contenders to win the Stanley Cup, the Dallas Stars have trended in the wrong direction, going 3-5-2 in their last ten games while falling down the board in Expected Goals For. With their front line dealing with regression, they lack the overall production that is needed to make a run, desperately needing to recapture the same success they had earlier in the year if they want to avoid an early exit.

Dallas Stars to Win Western Conference?

It has been a turbulent past few weeks of play for the Dallas Stars, a team who has deep run potential but may be held back by their front line if they are unable to round back into form. Their recent skid has been brutal, dropping to the bottom half of the board in Expected Goals For in All Situations with an average of 3.17 Expected Goals per game.

While their top talent is in a tier of their own with Jason Robertson, Wyatt Johnston, Roope Hintz, and Mikko Rantanen all averaging more than 0.30 Expected Goals, their drop off in production to their bottom lines is sizable with no one eclipsing 0.25. This makes it hard for them to pressure the net for the full duration of the contest, making them vulnerable to prolonged scoring lulls.

Fortunately for the Stars, their back line has been able to keep them competitive in their contests while their front line is in a slump, fielding a group who ranks in the top-10 in Expected Goals Against in All Situations and in 5-on-5 Play. With their back line smothering their opposition’s shot attempts, Jake Oettinger is able to consistently wall them off, averaging just 2.61 Goals Against per game.

Taking a look at the bracket, the Stars path to the Western Conference Finals is as daunting as it gets, kicking things off with a first round matchup against the Minnesota Wild who are getting hot at just the right time. If the Stars avoid a first round exit, then they would most likely battle it out against the Colorado Avalanche who are the best team in the league per their current odds to win the Stanley Cup.

If the Stars can upset the Avs, then their odds of winning the Western Conference Championship would skyrocket as they would be projected to face off against either Edmonton or Vegas, two contenders who possess glaring red flags at one side of the ice. Still, unless the Stars front line can round back into competitive form, then pass on them at their current odds to win the West.

Best Odds: Dallas to Win the Western Conference

Dallas Stars to Win Stanley Cup?

After surviving a gauntlet, the Stars would be just four wins away from hoisting the Stanley Cup, most likely having to battle it out against either the Tampa Bay Lightning or Carolina Hurricanes. Two contenders from the East who are as well rounded as it gets, ranking in the top-10 in Expected Goals For and in Expected Goals Against in All Situations.

The Lightning and Hurricanes ability to limit the amount of variance in their contests with their high level of play on both sides of the ice increases their chances of winning, especially when in a seven game series which helps limit the impact of a slump. With the Stars front line struggling to pressure the net, their back line will need to be near flawless just to be competitive.

Luckily for the Stars, they do possess a sizable advantage that few teams have, rostering two goalie who both have been terrific this season. Not only has Oettinger been a steady source of production for the Stars, his backup Casey DeSmith has also been able to thrive, averaging 2.34 Goals Against per game and a .910 Save Percentage.

With either goalie capable of giving them the protection they need to neutralize their opponents front line, the Stars can rotate them throughout the playoffs to help preserve their legs for the later rounds. A massive edge for the Stars, especially if they face off against a team who is overly reliant on just one goalie, exploiting their sluggish movement when their legs start to give out.

If the Stars are able to weave their way out of the West and end up facing off against either the Lightning or Hurricanes in the finals, then you can hedge your wager to help secure a profit. If the bracket breaks their way and they are paired with the likes of Buffalo, Pittsburgh, or Ottawa, then you can let your bet ride as the Stars advantages will be more impactful, giving them the edge they need to win the Stanley Cup.

Best Odds: Dallas to Win the Stanley Cup

Any Dallas Stars Players to Win Conn Smythe?

Even though he was snubbed from team USA, Jason Robertson has been one of the more productive forwards in the league, averaging 0.45 Expected Goals and 3.65 Shots on Goal per game. With Robertson pulling defensive attention towards him, the width of their opposing gaps in coverage widens, improving the quality of his linemates shot attempts when they are able to take advantage of the extra space.

One of the beneficiaries of Robertson’s gravity has been Wyatt Johnston, the Stars young center who has carved out a role as one of their lethal scorers. Heading into the playoffs, Johnston has rivaled Robertson in Expected Goals, averaging 0.44 per game.

Oettinger is also worth a wager to win the Conn Smythe as his production in net will be vital should the Stars want to avoid falling behind on the scoreboard when the quality of their opponent ramps up in the later rounds of the playoffs. Even with DeSmith chipping away at his workload, Oettinger will garner a majority of the starts which will help keep the spotlight on him.

Photo Credit: AP/David Zalubowski