Should You Bet on the Ottawa Senators to win the 2026 Stanley Cup?

After a slow start to the year, the Ottawa Senators were able to find their footing and have secured a spot in the playoffs. Once labeled as a fringe contender, the Senators have quietly turned into a formidable contender built to make a deep run in the bracket, ranking near the top of the board in Expected Goals on both sides of the ice.

Ottawa Senators to Win Eastern Conference?

After winning their last four games in a row, the Senators were able to secure one of the two wildcard spots in the East, stamping their ticket to the playoffs. Their resurgence on offense played a major role in their recent success, fielding a front line who continues to climb up the board in Expected Goals For in All Situations and in 5-on-5 Play.

With their front line giving them the production they need to be a well rounded unit, the Senators are able to reduce the amount of variance in their contests, increasing their chances of winning. Especially with their back line playing at a very high level, leading the league in Expected Goals Against in All Situations with an average of 2.69 Expected Goals Against per game.

Even though the Senators back line have been in a tier of their own this season, their coverage has not helped Linus Ullmark in his efforts of stringing together his performances, averaging a Save Percentage of .891. Ullmark’s inconsistencies makes it hard for the Senators to pull away on the scoreboard, putting more pressure on their front line to sustain their high level of play.

Looking at the Senators path to the Eastern Conference Championship, it is very favorable if they hold on to their current spot in the wild card standings. With Ottawa holding on to the first wildcard spot, they would kick things off with a matchup against the Buffalo Sabres who struggle to protect their net. If the Bruins are able to leap back over the Senators, then they would be forced to play Carolina, a far more daunting matchup for the Sens to overcome.

Assuming Ottawa skates past Buffalo, then they would most likely draw the Tampa Bay Lightning in the second round, giving you options on how you want to address your position. With the series moneyline expected to be tight, you can either hedge your position to at least get your bet back, or let it ride and hedge for more profit in the finals.

Best Odds: Ottawa Senators to win Eastern Conference

Ottawa Senators to Win Stanley Cup?

With the Senators front line elevating their level of play the past few weeks, they are equipped to battle it out against the upper tier of the West. Including a potential matchup against the Colorado Avalanche, pitting two contenders against each other who rank in the top-10 in Expected Goals For and in Expected Goals Against in All Situations.

With their defense capable of slowing down the Avs, the Senators chances of keeping it close on the scoreboard increases, needing just a bounce or two to go their way to secure the win. Especially if their suffocating coverage neutralizes Nathan MacKinnon, throwing the Avs front line off their rhythm, making it hard for them to score.

One weakness that does give me pause is the Senators lack of depth at goalie, forcing them to rely heavier on Ullmark the deeper they get into the bracket. This will create more wear and tear on Ullmark’s legs, slowing down his movements in their net which will widen the width of the oppositions shooting lanes in front of the crease.

If the Avs do go down before making the finals, then the Senators odds of winning the Stanley Cup would skyrocket, pitting them against an opponent who possesses at least one weakness on one side of the ice. Whether it is the Dallas Stars who have harshly regressed on offense or Edmonton who underwhelms on defense, their inefficiencies would bring in a higher amount of variance in favor of the Senators, shading value towards their current odds to win the title.

Like their chances of winning the Eastern Conference Championship, monitor the Senators placement in the bracket before placing a wager on any of their futures markets. While they will most likely have to go through Tampa Bay and Carolina at some point, the longer they can avoid them the higher percentage chance there is they get upset before even having to face them.

Best Odds: Ottawa Senators to win Stanley Cup

Any Ottawa Senators Players to Win Conn Smythe?

When at full health, Brady Tkachuk has been one of the more dominant forwards in the league, averaging 0.50 Expected Goals and 3.68 Shots on Goal per game. His production has been unmatched when compared to his teammates, making it hard for them to match his output which will help garner more media attention for the Conn Smythe throughout the playoffs.

While I am personally against adding any other forward to the Senators portfolio, one other name that is intriguing is Tim Stutzle, Tkachuk’s linemate who has quietly averaged 0.36 Expected Goals per game. If Tkachuk struggles to shake off the rust, then Stutzle would continue to benefit from a heavier workload, plummeting his odds to win the award in the process.

I would also avoid placing a wager on Ullmark to win the award until he is able to round back into competitive form as his inability to defend their net will just keep the spotlight pointed towards their front line. With no clear second option, place a full unit on Tkachuk to win the award with zero intentions of hedging.

Photo Credit: AP/Frank Franklin II